October 28, 2024:
After nearly three years of fighting in Ukraine, both sides are considering their options. Ukraine, with massive NATO supplies of weapons, munitions and economic aid, was able to defeat the Russian invasion. Since June 2023 Ukrainian forces have been taking back Russian controlled Ukrainian territory. On land, the gains were small. In the Black Sea, the Ukrainians were more successful. Using NATO supplied long range missiles and naval drones developed and built in Ukraine, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was largely destroyed and the surviving ships driven to Russian ports far from Crimea and key Ukrainian export ports like Odessa. By 2024 Russia could only attack Odessa with ballistic missiles, which are in short supply. Renewed missile attacks on Odessa have disrupted but have not halted port operations. Odessa is essential for exporting grain and bringing in essential economic goods.
With their Black Sea Fleet unavailable, and few Russian troops left in Crimea, Ukraine is now in a position to take back Crimea. This is an option that Ukraine will eventually have to act on. Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive for over a year but must choose their objectives carefully. Despite all that NATO military aid, it is still Ukrainian soldiers doing the fighting and taking the casualties. Russia knows that Crimea is on the Ukrainian reconquer list, they just don’t know when and where the attacks will happen.
The Russian decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 turned out to be a major mistake. The Ukrainian resistance was unexpectedly strong and sustained. NATO military aid was quick to arrive and continues to keep Ukrainian forces adequately equipped with weapons, though not munitions. At the same time, Ukraine has expanded its own weapons production and become the global leader in developing and producing drones. Russia has responded, but Ukraine remains the leader when it comes to design and production.
The Ukrainian economy has recovered and resumed growing in the last year. For Russia it’s been another year of economic sanctions and a growing number of Russians slipping into poverty. Vladimir Putin knows the importance of maintaining the welfare of the Russian people, especially the pensioners. Taking care of this was how he got started as ruler of Russia 25 years ago and now that prosperity is slipping away because of the war. Most Russians have tolerated the war, despite it being one where Russia was the aggressor and soon suffering from economic sanctions imposed by most of the world’s major economies.
Worse, several million Russian men have been killed and wounded, or fled Russia to avoid being forced to join the troops in Ukraine. Most Russians know someone who was killed or wounded in Ukraine and there is now widespread resistance to being forced into the military to die in Ukraine. Police are raiding workplaces and entertainment venues seeking Russian men who have avoided mobilization into the military. So many Russian men have fled the country that there are growing labor shortages.
Putin knows Russia has lost in Ukraine but is uncertain how to make peace without getting blamed and punished for causing this expensive and extensive mess. Putin has already been indicted for war crimes and the Russians mourning their dead and sliding into poverty want solutions and a lot less of Putin.
This war will not end well. Few wars ever do.