December 29, 2024:
During several months of operations, Israeli managed to virtually destroy Iran-backed Hezbollah. This is a Lebanese Shia faction which operates as de facto government with a well-armed militia. The term Hezbollah means Party of God and this party works for Iran. Without Iranian support Hezbollah would soon fade away. That’s what happened this year, when a series of attacks, beginning with exploding pagers in September killed or wounded over 3,000 Hezbollah members, That along with precise Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah leaders left Hezbollah leaderless and Israel’s subsequent ground invasion of part of Hezbollah’s territory shattered its ground forces.
There are still some remnants left. Hezbollah-run drug operations in eastern Lebanon are thill operational. Hezbollah has long been active in the hashish and cocaine trade. The billions of dollars earned by drug operations is managed by a small number of Hezbollah members in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar. That money can be used to rebuild Hezbollah. America, European and most Persian Gulf nations want the Hezbollah treasury eliminated. That will be difficult to do. The Hezbollah money managers in Qatar have been dispensing and concealing their billions through late 2024 as the main Hezbollah organization in Lebanon was being taken apart.
Hezbollah can be reassembled by financing the revenge fantasies of the many Lebanese Shia that desire revenge. This became more difficult after the lightning early December campaign by a reorganized Islamic terrorist organization HTS, which quickly took control of Syria and sent the ruling Assad family into a Russian exile. That means Hezbollah in Lebanon no longer has a land connection to Iran via Iraq and Syria. Iran was the primary supplier of weapons and IRGC technical advisors to Hezbollah. Growing popular unrest in Iran makes it difficult for the IRGC to spare manpower to help rebuild Hezbollah.
It is possible for the new Hezbollah leadership and their Iranian overlords to find ways to get the men, weapons and training together to rebuild Hezbollah. If left alone, that could take years. Israel and the many other nations hostile to Hezbollah will interfere with the rebuilding. Hezbollah will reappear, but it will not be as powerful or as expansive as its predecessor. For Hezbollah fans, it’s better than nothing.