August 21, 2024: Europe, like all industrialized nations, is suffering from a population decline. Fewer children are being born because parents consider raising children a burden that can be avoided. This is not a problem for nations like the U.S. and France which accept and absorb migrants. Most nations refuse to do this and are now seeking other solutions. One includes using more automation and drones to do the work people used to perform. This is not a solution, but a bad idea described as a solution. Technology is a tool used by people, not a substitute for a declining population.

For major European nations like Germany that resist migrants or recruiting them as soldiers, the prospects are not good. Population and economic decline are the result of the refusal to face reality. There is also a growing popular aversion to military service. Nations that depend on volunteers to fill their ranks are no longer attracting enough men to maintain current military strength. Current events in Ukraine provide an alternative. Nearly three years of war have left Ukraine and Russia with troop shortages. The Ukrainian solution was more drones and continuous innovation in drone design. Hundreds of Ukrainian drone manufacturers, many working at home using commercial parts, turn out over 3,000 drones a day. Many of these drone builders have family or friends in the military and sending them more droves is appreciated.

Russia, as the invader, has no similar drone manufacturing and design system. Drones are a state monopoly in Russia and that means Russian drones are always behind the Ukrainians’ in terms of quantity and quality. This results in more casualties among Russian troops and demoralization from continuous Ukrainian innovation in creating new drones that kill Russian soldiers in unexpected ways. This has led to the Russian invasion stalling in late 2023 and the Ukrainian drones continuing to inflict losses on the Russian forces. Russian leaders have, so far, refused to accept defeat. Time is not on their side.

NATO nations have long supported and supplied Ukraine with weapons, munitions and commercial goods for Ukrainian civilians as well as refuge for Ukrainian refugees. With regular access to Ukrainian tactics and new military technology, NATO nations are developing new weapons and strategies. NATO nations are facing a shortage of volunteers, a refusal to reinstate conscription and the continuing need for effective armed forces to deal with a number of potential crises. Currently, the most popular solution is creating small groups of well-trained troops backed by large numbers of drones. The soldiers would develop ways to make best use of the drones in whatever kind of conflict they encountered. To a lesser extent drones are already being used by police for surveillance and pursuit. Police cannot use many armed drones because most police work is carried out among civilians and a few criminals.

In combat zones there are fewer rules and restrictions. It’s a kill or be killed environment that favors the side with more drones and better ideas on how to use them. The war in Ukraine has fully established this. NATO nations noted an opportunity to learn from this and that intense learning process will continue until the war in Ukraine is over. At that point NATO nations will already be implementing solutions to their own military manpower problems using lessons from the Ukraine war.