Terrorism: June 15, 2001



DARPA has developed a wargame to predict what terrorist groups will do next. Actually, it's a predictive model, long used on Wall Street (for predicting trading trends), marketing (for predicting buying trends) and statistics based sports games. All terrorist groups have a large number of identifiable characteristics (ideology, leadership habits, resources and the like.) Using the wargame on 66 terrorist actions from the last 17 years, the system was able to predict what the terrorists actually did. This is called backtesting ("predicting the past.") Now the system is being used to monitor current terrorist groups to see if it can predict upcoming terrorist actions. These systems are only as good as their data. With past terrorist events, we have a lot more data. So the challenge in using these tools on future terrorism is obtaining enough data. To accomplish this, DARPA is taking another technique from the marketing field; data mining. When you have a large quantity of data on a subject, you can use statistical


Article Archive

Terrorism: Current 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999



Help Keep Us From Drying Up

We need your help! Our subscription base has slowly been dwindling.

Each month we count on your contributions. You can support us in the following ways:

  1. Make sure you spread the word about us. Two ways to do that are to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
  2. Subscribe to our daily newsletter. We’ll send the news to your email box, and you don’t have to come to the site unless you want to read columns or see photos.
  3. You can contribute to the health of StrategyPage.
Subscribe   Contribute   Close