October 26, 2024:
Russian leader Vladimir Putin is simultaneously part of the problem and part of the solution in Ukraine. In 2021 Putin believed attacking Ukraine would be a quick and inexpensive victory. He believed the situation in Ukraine was chaotic and its leadership lackluster. The reality was being forced to cope with misjudgments and unpleasant consequences. The war, now in its third year, has cost Russia over 600,000 dead or wounded soldiers. The economy went from rebuilding in 2021 to contraction and substantial reorganization by 2024. The heavy military and economic losses could no longer be ignored or misrepresented inside Russia. Over a million Russian men have served in Ukraine. By the end of 2022 Putin outlawed any reporting of Russian casualties in Ukraine. For most Russians the high casualty rate in Ukraine was no secret. Too many Russians knew men who had gone to Ukraine and either came back in a coffin or disappeared. About two percent of military age Russian men have been in Ukraine, usually only 200,000 at a time.
By late 2023 most Russians realized that service in Ukraine was guaranteed to get most men killed or wounded. Enough came back to reveal what was actually happening there. While Putin controlled the mass media, he did not control the internet and that is where Russians could get timely and accurate information about what was happening in Ukraine. Putin tried to keep that information from appearing on the Russian internet. He had some success but such censorship was a sign that the situation was bad in Ukraine for Russians. Soon Russian hackers had found ways to evade the government censorship and let the truth in.
From the beginning Russian soldiers were ordered not to bring their cell phones to Ukraine. Many did so anyway and were able to obtain sim chips that provided access to the international internet. There were many Russian language news services available outside Russia and a more accurate account of what was happening in Ukraine. Russian soldiers with cell phones told friends and family back home what was actually happening. Putin found that his draconian censorship could not be enforced without putting millions of Russians in prison. A few prosecutions were carried out. It was not enough to stop Russians from getting accurate news of the mess in Ukraine.
By 2023 many of Putin’s most important supporters, the wealthy businessmen known as oligarchs, reported that business was bad and getting worse. Western economic sanctions and the expense of the war had disrupted life for most Russians as well as the oligarchs. Nearly half the federal budget was being spent on the war. By 2024 Putin was told by oligarchs and economists that prolonging the war was damaging the economy, and that the longer the war went on, the longer it would take for the Russian economy to recover. Russia was able to evade many of the sanctions but at great cost. In the long run those higher costs were unsustainable. More Russians were sliding into poverty and the high casualties, plus millions of Russian men who fled the country to avoid service in Ukraine, have caused a labor shortage. A disproportionate number of the Russian exiles were highly skilled scientists, engineers and technicians who could find work in the West. The loss of these personnel caused shortages of key personnel and that disrupted production of civilian and military goods.
There was nothing Putin could do to stem these problems with production and emigration. By now many Russians wanted changes in how the country was run and didn’t care if it was a reformed Putin or a new president. So far Putin refuses to change and has kept the security services loyal to him. The oligarchs are another matter and these men keep reporting increasingly dire economic problems. Russian economists and oligarchs believe that the economic situation will become critical by 2027 or earlier.