October 16, 2024: A major reason for the Russian inability to defeat Ukraine is the activities of GUR, the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service. GUR has been very active and innovative in developing and carrying out plans to subvert the Russian military and carry out attacks deep inside Russia. At one point a GUR organized attack was made on targets outside Moscow where it was obvious to the locals that the attacks succeeded. The Russian government is always quick to deny that Ukrainian attacks inside Russia occurred or did any damage. GUR made a point of carrying out attacks that were visible to many Russians, like setting fire to a large petroleum depot, at night so that it was visible over a wide area. Another attack blew up a large weapons and munitions warehouse. This was also visible over a wide area. Russia declared these incidents were accidents. Most Russians could do the math and noted there were more of these incidents the longer Russian forces remained in Ukraine.

GUR also seeks out Russian agents in Ukraine, inserts Ukrainian agents into Russia and recruits anti-Putin Russians to carry out tasks. Early in the war there were a number of Ukrainians who agreed to work for Russia, believing that Ukrainians could not win against the Russians or simply because being a traitor paid well. GUR was remarkably capable at dealing with Russian spies as well as getting Ukrainian operatives into Russia and keeping them active and out of Russian custody. GUR managed to facilitate a number of Russian soldiers to change sides. In one case this involved a Russian helicopter pilot defecting with his helicopter. Defectors are often angry with their own government for the mess in Ukraine and act on that by quietly carrying out attacks. Some of these involved throwing hand grenades into a room full of officers or sabotaging a warship they were serving on. GUR was always quick to encourage this sort of thing and help the perpetrators get away safely. That track record encouraged more attacks, some in cooperation with GUR.

GUR has been active throughout the war with Russia and continues to surprise and embarrass the Russian military.