November 15, 2019: Satellite photos have revealed what appears to be a new addition to the Jiangnan shipyard on the Yangtze River near Shanghai. The new yard gives the impression that it is devoted to building aircraft carriers. A new carrier, apparently the first 70,000 ton Type 002, is under construction. More revealing is the extensive infrastructure being erected around the new drydock and nearby kilometer long fitting out pier. This is something of a mass production operation with components of the hull and pre-fabricated sections of the hull interior stored nearby to be lifted into place and attached to the hull and other sections. This is a technique widely used in commercial shipbuilding and for other Chinese warships, including the new 12,000 ton Type 55 destroyers and 40,000 ton Type 075 LPH amphibious ship. The new carrier yard could be used for building smaller ships but it could also be used for turning out carriers quickly. The Type 002 carrier uses catapults to launch aircraft. The hull of the first one, already underway, is apparently going to take less than two years to finish and launch. After that, it moves to the fitting out pier where another two or three years of work is needed before the new carrier ready for sea trials. That process, including trips back to port or the shipyard for fixes and adjustments, can take a year or so.

China has not revealed how many carriers it plans to eventually build. China already has two; CV-16 in service and a similar CV-17 undergoing trials. It was assumed that China wanted to build two more similar carriers (CV-18 and 19) which would lose the ski jump deck and instead adopt a catapult. These two will be a bit larger than CV-17 and the first one is already under construction and is expected to be in the water by 2020 and in service by 2024. One thing that might delay the Type 002 is the decision on which catapult system (steam or electric) to use. The U.S. Navy has had problems getting its EMALS (electromagnetic aircraft launch system) to work effectively and the Chinese may be waiting to see how that works out before deciding. The Type 002 will have a steam propulsion system but one that will produce a lot more electricity (for laser weapons and catapult). After the two catapult equipped carriers are evaluated, it is believed that two nuclear-powered carriers are planned (CVN-20 and 21). These will be similar to the 100,000 ton American Nimitz class CVNs.

Since carriers spend a lot of time in port getting upgrades and maintenance, you need three or more in order to guarantee having at least two available at all times for operations. China is already preparing for that by building enough escort and support ships, along with air wings, to keep several carrier task forces (each with one carrier) busy while one or more carriers sidelined by months of maintenance and upgrades.

It is difficult to hide carrier construction activity and it’s not just the spy satellites. Revelations about CV-17 (Type 001A carrier) over the last few years were not a total surprise as there had been reports that a large aircraft carrier (or parts of it) was under construction in northwest China (Dalian) since 2013. One of the best sources of information on Chinese warship construction is the Internet. Thousands of Chinese naval buffs living close to major shipyards provide a steady supply of photos on the web. The Chinese government tried to prevent this but since 2005 came to realize that cracking down on enthusiastic and Internet-savvy Chinese fans of the navy was not a wise move. A lot of important secrets are still preserved by building parts of ships in a shed and a lot of the most valuable military secrets are with equipment installed inside the ship or behind a wall. So the government allows all (with a few exceptions) these photos to appear.

Then there are some interesting official photos. In mid-2014 photos of a carrier model being displayed at an official event appeared on the Chinese Internet. The detailed model had the hull number 18 and the ship looked similar to an American CVN (a Nimitz class nuclear aircraft carrier). The Chinese CVN has four catapults and three elevators and much other evidence of being nuclear and very similar to the Nimitz class. This was an early Chinese Navy proposal for a CVN and that has apparently been refined to something that is similar to the Nimitz.

At one point it was believed that the first Chinese CVN would be more like the American USS Enterprise (CVN 65). This was the first American nuclear-powered carrier and it served as the prototype for the subsequent Nimitz class. The Enterprise was an expensive design, and only one was built, rather than the expected class of six. While a bit longer than the later Nimitz class, it was lighter (92,000 tons displacement, versus 100,000 tons). The Enterprise was commissioned in 1961, almost 40 years after the first U.S. carrier (the Langley) entered service in 1923. CVN 65 was active until 2012 and decommissioned in early 2017, two months before the second Chinese carrier was launched.

Chinese are keen students of history, their own as well as that of others. Chinese ship designers know all about the Langley and the Enterprise. The Chinese are also well aware that in the two decades after the USS Langley there were tremendous changes in carrier aviation. While the innovation slowed after World War II, major changes continued into the 1950s (jet aircraft, nuclear-propelled carriers, SAMs). But in the ensuing half-century, there has been no major innovation in basic carrier design. This has not been a problem because the carriers have proven useful, at least for the U.S. Navy, the only fleet to use such large carriers. No one else has maintained a force of these large carriers. Only the U.S. has felt a constant need to get air power to any corner of the planet in a hurry. More importantly, no navy has been able to give battle to the U.S. carrier force since 1945. The Soviets built new anti-carrier weapons and made plans to use them but that war never occurred. China is building carriers but does not yet seem committed to having a lot of them to confront the U.S., but rather just a few to intimidate its neighbors.

The Chinese Navy is very popular with most Chinese and its commanders are enthusiastic about expanding in order to protect the seaborne trade that the modern Chinese economy depends on. For thousands of years before that Chinese rulers did not consider naval power important because it wasn’t. Now it is and the navy is getting the money and encouragement to do what China has never done before.

Based on what is being said in Chinese media and around the shipyard, the performance of CV-17 will play a large role. CV-17 was expected to undergo one or two years of sea trials before entering service. While the sea trials seemed ahead of schedule in early 2019, with talk of CV-17 entering service in April, that optimism was dampened when the expected “unexpected problems” showed up and required more sea trials, alternating with time in port so that items could be fixed, upgraded, repaired or replaced. Unlike CV-16, the engines of CV-17 were less of a problem.

The sea trials for China’s second aircraft carrier going on for 18 months now, which is five months longer than their first carrier, CV-16 (Liaoning). There is no official word on why the second carrier is taking longer to debug. It is known that CV-17 has more electronics, including a powerful AESA (flat panel phased array) radar and a more capable communications and control system built into the ship. It would not be surprising if those improvements caused unexpected and repeated problems. The CV-16 made ten sea trial voyages before it entered service. CV-17 had made eight so far. CV-17 has been in the water since April 2017, when it was launched. That was 25 months after construction began. At the end of 2017 CV-17 was dockside being prepared for sea trials, which began on schedule in May 2018.

CV-17 is a Type 001A carrier 315 meters (1,033 feet) long, which is three percent longer that CV-16. The new carrier displaces 75,000 tons, which is 12 percent more than CV-16. Obvious differences are a slightly (about 10 percent) smaller control tower and about ten percent more flight deck area. There is more space internally for maritime and aircraft fuel. It appears that CV-17 would have to be refueled about once a week when at sea.

It was only at the end of 2015 that China admitted the CV-17 existed and was referred to as Type 001A ship rather than Type 001 because it is slightly different from its predecessor. In March 2016 China revealed more details, some of them already obvious. CV-17 was considered a new design but based on the first Chinese carrier, the Liaoning. That first carrier was a 65,000 ton, 305 meter (999 feet) long ship that was itself a modified version of the last Cold War Russian carrier design. In 2016 China confirmed that CV-17 would also have the ski jump deck like Liaoning, would be somewhat heavier, and incorporate new design features that would enable it to carry more aircraft (mainly the J-15) in a larger hanger deck (just below the flight deck) as well as more fuel and aircraft weapons. Photos of CV-17 under construction revealed that it also incorporated design features that will make it more capable of surviving combat damage as well as operating more efficiently and effectively as a carrier.

In addition to the Chinese built J-15 fighter, the new carrier will also have early-warning radar and anti-submarine aircraft as well as some helicopters. CV-17 could apparently operate about 20 percent more aircraft than CV-16 (50 fixed-wing and helicopters versus about 40). Currently, China only has about fifty carrier qualified J-15 pilots and Liaoning is kept busy being what it is officially described as; a training carrier.