by
Austin BayOctober 28, 2026
Can looming foul weather encourage a ceasefire, specifically the curious local ceasefire in the war-devastated Ukraine Donbas town of Oleshky? Or is the Oleshky back-channel diplomacy an indication that exhausted warring parties want an end to combat?
My first reaction to the short ceasefire: A humanitarian pause in combat -- especially a pause permitting civilian evacuation as well as food and medical aid -- is a gift horse. Don't look it in the mouth. Approve the deal, even if it proves to be a momentary respite and the bad guys use it to resupply.
The weather question, however, is not an absurd consideration; it's practical if you know anything about the eastern front. General Winter is coming.
To many observers, the back-channel diplomatic activity suggests a negotiated end to the conflict is under consideration in Moscow.
Is it? The calculating Russian president Vladimir Putin commands Russia's war of aggression. A cynical pause to string along Western peace-seekers like the Pope and Mrs. Trump benefits him optically and politically. A brief pause in a key sector near Crimea also gives depleted Russian forces a chance to resupply, redeploy and dig in. Before General Winter arrives.
Here's the good deed story. Major media tout Pope Leo XIV and U.S. First Lady Melania Trump as powerful advocates of a limited humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshky. The Vatican affirms Pope Leo spoke twice by phone with Putin, the first conversation on Oct. 16. Pope Leo called Oleshky a humanitarian crisis. He asked for a pause in combat to relieve the suffering. The Pope also spoke with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Along a parallel timeline, Mrs. Trump engaged in semi-official diplomacy -- back channel in the jargon. Media report the First Lady of the U.S. spoke with "Russian and Ukrainian civilian negotiators after receiving briefings" by United Nations officials. Born in Slovenia, the Slavic Mrs. Trump speaks five languages, maybe six. She knows something about eastern European conflict. She was 21 when Yugoslavia began to disintegrate. My bet: Like her husband, she deplores the millions of casualties. In Ukraine, both sides are ethnic Slavs.
Applaud both the Pope and Mrs. Trump. There is a humanitarian precedent, on a much bigger scale and in different circumstances. During World War I, Herbert Hoover founded and led the Commission for Relief in Belgium. Prior to America's entry in the war, Hoover's aid group fed millions of hungry Belgian and French civilians who were trapped between and among German and Allied forces. The Germans permitted the food distribution operations -- though with scrutiny.
Russian soldiers captured Oleshky in the first pulse of their February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They have controlled it ever since. The Wall Street Journal and Reuters describe Oleshky's remaining residents as trapped and desperate -- lacking "food, water and medicine." Reuters reported residents said they survived by eating a "cup of rice or buckwheat a day ..."
Grim. A glimpse forward to what we can expect of a permanent Russian occupation of the Donbas? I think so, if any Oleshkians remain under Russian rule postwar. Putin expected Ukrainians to welcome Russian soldiers. Whether ethnic Ukrainian or ethnic Russian, most Ukrainians didn't and most still don't.
The local ceasefire lasts until Nov. 1, five days on as I write. Presumably, Russian forces in and around Oleshky will let food convoys enter. Some residents will be allowed to evacuate.
Elsewhere, combat and city-busting attacks continue unabated. Forgive the mixed metaphor, as I write this essay any ceasefire looks like a moving target. In the last few hours, Russian drones and missiles have bombarded Kyiv.
The cynic in me says Putin is playing on European and American hopes for peace, stringing along everyone who prays for a fair and reasonable negotiated end to the carnage.
As for General Winter? The first snowstorms usually strike Ukraine's Donbas in late November -- roughly a month from now. General Winter is a nickname for bad winter weather in and near Russia. General Winter's crack forces are ice, deep snow, deep mud and howling winds. Rain and high winds, however, already affect Ukraine's battlefield. Wind disturbs aerial drone operations, and drones are Ukraine's battlefield ace. Sudden gusts can cause an aerial drone computer to lose control. Turbulence can cause internal compass errors and even affect other guidance systems. Rain turns dirt roads into mud, hindering movement by wheeled and tracked vehicles. Snow and ice freeze engines and human beings.
Result: Ukrainian ground offensive operations become very difficult.
As I write this column, Accuweather's website says it is raining in Oleshky. Wind gusts 23 mph.