Afghanistan: June 6, 2005


Averaged over several weeks, the level of attacks in the Taliban "Spring Offensive" seems to be running about 35-40 incidents a week, about what it was this time last year. As happened last year, the tempo of attacks will probably rise as September approaches. Last year, during the September presidential elections the weekly rate of attacks reached about a hundred, and it is likely that something like this level of attacks may be reached again given the parliamentary elections scheduled for September.

Meanwhile, 75 to 80 percent of attacks continue to occur in provinces along the Pakistani border, a wild region dominated by tribes that only grudgingly -- if at all -- accept the authority of the Pakistani government. And about a third of the attacks are against civilians, rather than Afghan or Coalition forces.


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