November 8, 2026: On the Pacific Island of New Guinea, northwest of Australia. West Papua is controlled by Indonesia, whose security forces have failed, for years, to deal with local insurgents like the TPNPB (West Papua National Liberation Army). The group has targeted economic assets such as the Grasberg mine complex, as well as light aircraft and related facilities. The group has no more than 1,500 rebels, but they know the terrain and have support from local Papuans and some foreigners. Indonesia has sent in over 100,000 security personnel who don’t know the territory or the people and spend much of their time getting lost, using GPS devices to find a safe route back to camp. This means 10% of Indonesian forces are dealing with 2% of the Indonesian population. The Indonesian troops don’t want to spend any more time in an equatorial jungle than they must and often sell their weapons to the rebels. New Guinea is also home to hundreds of tribes scattered throughout the island,

Meanwhile, Australia and its northern neighbor, Papua New Guinea (the eastern half of New Guinea Island), are jointly reviving an old American World War II naval base on Manus Island, off the northeast coast of Papua New Guinea. The U.S. Navy built the base in 1944 as Lombrum Naval Base, a major forward base for American naval forces, as well as Marines and soldiers who stayed at nearby camps before moving on to combat operations. Lombrum could perform major repairs on most warships and resupply ships before they moved into a combat zone. The Americans shut down Lombrum in 1946 as forces demobilized and redeployed after the war. Australia took over Lombrum in 1950 and used it until 1974 as a replacement for their Dreger Harbor base on the east coast of New Guinea. In 1974, newly independent PNG (Papua New Guinea) armed forces inherited the Manus facility. Activity at the base had declined since 1950, and PNG used it as a base for patrol boats. In 2018, Australia and PNG, alarmed by aggressive Chinese activity in the area, agreed to jointly upgrade and operate what was then called the Lombrum naval base. The expansion deepened the harbor by two meters to accommodate larger ships, added facilities (electrical, water, sewage) for more personnel, and rebuilt and extended some piers. The base is installing radars and other sensors to better monitor naval activity. The upgraded base can handle more PNG patrol boats as well as frigates and destroyers from the Australian, U.S. Navy, and other friendly nations sending warships to the area, especially when involved in deterring China.

PNG personnel did most of the expansion work, and PNG citizens made up most of the base personnel. Manus is the largest of the Admiralty Islands, part of the Bismarck Archipelago. Manus was occupied by the Japanese from 1942 until an American offensive cleared them out in 1944. Manus was always seen as a key island in the Bismarck Archipelago, and holding Manus gave you control of access to the South Pacific, PNG/Australia/New Zealand, and many smaller islands.

Twenty years ago, the situation was worse as Papua New Guinea continued to wallow in corruption and inefficiency. For example, a review of registered voter lists found that 45 percent of the nation's 4.9 million registered voters did not exist. The nation has a population of 5.1 million, most of them living in rural areas, and is largely governed by ancient tribal practices. Years of manipulating the voting lists by rival tribes and tribal factions have produced voter fraud. In some districts, the voting system is so corrupt that the national government will not accept those results. While most of the urban population (about ten percent of the whole), and many tribal leaders, want an honest, efficient government, it's a difficult, uphill slog. Criminal activity is out of control, to the extent that neighboring Australia has warned its citizens to avoid traveling to Papua New Guinea.

The situation isn't hopeless, but it will take generations to change. Tribal culture resists modernization and modern government practices. Loyalty to the tribe is paramount, and that attitude justifies much of the corruption. But there's also a general lack of understanding of how important honest government administration is. Change comes slowly, as children notice alternatives and grow up to replace their elders. This has been going on for many generations, but most people in government still live by the old ways.

A group of armed criminals from the island nation of Bougainville crossed the straits separating it from the island nation of the Solomons and robbed several thousand dollars' worth of goods from a logging camp. Police believe they know some of the bandits but could not pursue them until they got permission from the Bougainville government. But that may take a while, since Bougainville, to save money, has neighboring Papua New Guinea handle its foreign affairs. The robbery is believed to be related to tribal disputes, which, if not handled deftly, could escalate into a wider tribal war. This can get out of control, as has happened in the past decade.

James F Dunnigan