October 4, 2024: Ukraine's battle with the Russian invaders has been going on for nearly three years, and over $100 billion in military and economic aid from NATO nations has enabled Ukraine to concentrate on developing their own long range weapons for making attacks deep inside Russia. The long-range weapons NATO supplied had restrictions on how they could be used. That included no attacks deep inside Russia. Ukraine drones were another matter and designed specifically to hit targets up to 1,800 kilometers inside Russia. The Ukrainians selected targets for doing the most damage to the Russian war effort. This included vehicle fuel depots and refineries as well as storage areas for munitions, including artillery shells and missiles. Recent attacks have had spectacular results, with huge explosions of munitions and fires from burning vehicle and aviation fuel visible from orbital space. Commercial satellite companies distribute these images freely and Ukraine is the first war where the general public has access to detailed photos of what is happening every day in Ukraine. Western mass media print and video news outlets feature these videos on a regular basis. The typical Russian efforts to report that everything is going according to plan are upset when videos of what actually happened are published.

Recent Ukrainian attacks destroyed substantial stockpiles of Russian munitions, in addition to stockpiles of vehicle and aviation fuel. This means that for the next few months the Russians will be unable to launch major military operations. Attacking with just infantry and no artillery or airstrike support is suicidal. Russian infantry losses have been so heavy since 2022 that Russia is running out of even untrained and ineffective infantry.

Ukrainian drone strikes have also been hitting Russian air bases where Russian MiG-31 fighter-bombers as well as bombers like the Tu-22M and Tu-95 are found. So far at least six of these aircraft have been damaged or destroyed by Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia. The recent attack on the Savasleyka airbase highlights the vulnerability of military infrastructures to UAV attacks. The attack drones come in low and slow at night. This makes it difficult for airbase air defenses to detect and destroy many of the Ukrainian drones. These attacks demonstrate how much air warfare has changed because of the use of reconnaissance and attack drones by both sides. Before Russia invaded, military analysts worldwide did not anticipate such a widespread use of drones and how it changed ground, air and naval warfare. Long range attacks by drones were terrifying because the attacker was not risking the lives of highly trained pilots. Pilot training costs over a million dollars per pilot. Skilled pilots lost in combat cannot be quickly replaced. Drones have no pilots and the men and women who build, program and in some cases operate drones are far from the combat zone. Ukrainian annual drone production is now about equal to annual Russian artillery shell production.

Because of the extensive use of drones, warfare has fundamentally changed. Ukraine and Russia are both competing to keep up with new drone designs and uses. The long range drone attacks on Russian munitions and fuel depots as well as air bases are an example of that. Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure and population centers are the only response they can muster. Ukraine has hidden its stockpiles and combat aircraft more effectively than the Russian. Moreover Ukraine can quickly receive emergency resupplies of fuel and munitions from NATO allies. Russia has a more difficult time because they were subjected to severe economic and military sanctions after they invaded Ukraine.

Ukraine's current military and economic situation came as a shock to their invaders, who originally believed Ukraine would quickly fall to an invasion headed for the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, which is near the Russian border. Ukrainian defenders were more numerous and effective than expected and now Russia is on the defense.