November 4, 2024: As of October, NATO has a new leader and multiple problems to deal with and solve. First, there is the war in Ukraine. Russia invaded in early 2022 and failed to win the expected quick victory. Instead Russia has lost over 600,000 dead, wounded and missing. A growing number of the missing are deserters who fled either before they were sent to Ukraine or after they arrived. It’s illegal for Russian soldiers to desert but so many are doing so that the government ignores that problem. That’s because all those deserters are more than the prison system can handle and admitting there are that many deserters is an embarrassing admission of defeat. Russian leader Vladimir Putin does not tolerate defeat and is desperately seeking ways to avoid it. One of his latest efforts involves hiring 12,000 North Korean soldiers to restore the capabilities of his depleted army. That won’t be enough and Putin sees the war as an endurance contest. He has pledged to keep fighting as long as it takes. Putin believes NATO will eventually tire of supporting Ukraine and allow Putin to annex Ukraine as part of Putin’s revived Soviet Union.

The new NATO leader realizes he cannot let Putin get his way. Losing Ukraine would mean the next targets would be NATO members like Poland and the Baltic States. Poland sees this as a possibility and ordered a thousand K2 tanks from South Korea. The K2 is similar to the American M1 but was developed and built in South Korea using no American components or items where the U.S. owns the patents. Because of this South Korea can sell the K2 to Poland without American restrictions. Poland has already received over a hundred K2s and will eventually produce at least 500 K2s in Poland under license. Poland already has some German Leopard 2s and American M1s. Within a few years Poland will have the largest tank force in Europe, and that includes Russia.

Putin does not want to attack NATO because Russia would be defeated, but Ukraine is another matter. Putin believes he can eventually persuade NATO to pressure Ukraine into surrendering the 26 percent of Ukraine that Russia already occupies. Ukrainians refuse to accept that large a loss and are willing to keep fighting to ensure the Russians do not get their way.

In a world where clarity and finality are admired, the Ukraine War is murky and unending. NATO continues to be the primary supplier of weapons and economic aid to Ukraine. Most of Ukraine has not been affected by the fighting. Ukraine is still a major grain exporter, as is Russia. These grain exports cannot be disrupted because many countries, like Afghanistan, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey and Yemen depend on the Ukrainian grain exports. Western nations on this list can easily switch to another supplier, but African, Middle Eastern and Asian customers often cannot.

Most NATO nations are not directly impacted by the stability of the Ukrainian grain exports, but many of the nations that are vulnerable have important relationships with NATO nations. As a result, continued Ukrainian grain exports is an important issue for NATO nations.

Ukraine wants to become a NATO member and NATO is willing to accept Ukraine as its 33rd member. This cannot happen while Ukraine is still at war and Vladimir Putin has hinted at a deal that would involve Ukraine surrendering Russian occupied land in order to gain NATO membership. This is a surrender too far for Ukraine, which rejected this deal. Ukraine realizes that their fight against Russia prevents the Russians from going after Poland and the Baltic States. While such an attack on NATO members seems improbable, so was the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

NATO finds itself in an impossible situation that must be resolved. Ukraine cannot afford to be lost and Russia must realize that fighting the NATO alliance is a losing proposition. Maybe not, but in the past Russia did not hesitate to attack Poland, Finland and planned to invade Germany before the Germans themselves attacked in 1941. Ironically, the war in Ukraine is the first major war in Europe since 1945 when the Western allies and Russia defeated Nazi Germany. By invading Ukraine, the Russians became the Nazis and they steadfastly refuse to accept that. Russia says it is in Ukraine to eliminate pro-Nazi elements and bring Ukraine back into a new Russian empire. NATO members do not believe any of that and are resigned to the task of continuing to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

Another problem facing NATO is the reluctance of the United States to continue being the major supplier of aid for Ukraine. The Americans want NATO nations to do more of this and some NATO nations, like Poland, Romania, Finland, the Baltic States, and Germany are doing just that.

Managing NATO in wartime may be a headache but so far these efforts have been successful. Doubts linger about NATO'S ability to keep it up.