June 17, 2024: It began with the recent arrest of a Russian deputy defense minister. Then the head of the ministry’s personnel directorate was hauled into court. Within a few weeks two more senior military officials were detained. All face charges of corruption, which they have denied. The arrests started shortly before President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term on May 7 as a longtime ally, longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, was demoted to a new job.

This immediately raised questions about whether Putin was reasserting control over the Defense Ministry amid the war in Ukraine, whether a turf battle had broken out between the military and the security services, or whether some other scenario was playing out behind the Kremlin’s walls. To many this seemed to be a return to the Russian government long described as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

Corruption scandals are not new and officials and top officials have been accused of profiting from their positions for decades. Corruption in Russia functions as both a carrot and stick. It’s a way of encouraging loyalty and urging people to be on the same page, as well as a method of control. Putin favors men who have embarrassing secrets when selecting key officials in his government. Trust those who have a secret they want kept secret. The Russian government constantly searches for such secrets so it can threaten to publicize them if the officials do not do as they are told. This hidden secret policy and tolerance for corruption are the key elements in running the current Russian government.

The war in Ukraine has led to much larger defense spending that has increased opportunities for graft. In April the first official arrested for corruption was a former Deputy Defense Minister who presided over military-related construction projects that had high priority, access to lots of money and few financial controls. One of the projects was the reconstruction of the devastated Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. The Ukrainians held out for a long time and the Russians had to fight hard to capture a city of ruins and unusable factories and port facilities.

The recent arrests are not described as part of an anti-corruption campaign but rather ongoing activities throughout the Russian government. That’s another way of admitting that corruption was everywhere and ongoing as an essential element of making the government work.

Key officials make little effort to hide their new wealth. They do this through ostentatious displays ranging from hundred million dollar yachts to new wrist watches that cost several times their official annual salaries. These displays of ill-gotten wealth by senior government and military officials and their family members were so extensive and obvious that it enraged Russians who were suffering economically because of the cost of the war.

There were more personal costs because about a half a million Russians have died in Ukraine since early 2022, and their families and friends blame the Russian government because it was Russia that invaded Ukraine, not the other way around. During World War II, the last time Russia was invaded, there was little corruption in part because 13 percent of Russians died in that war. Most of them were killed by the Germans but many were killed by the Russian government.

Prompt obedience to orders was a matter of life or death for Russian soldiers and civilians because military officers and NKVD secret police personnel could kill any Russian displaying reluctance or refusal to carry out orders. The desperate situation during World War II limited opportunities for corruption. The war in Ukraine is different but as many corrupt officials are discovering, not different enough to keep them out of prison or an early grave.

The recent arrests, prosecutions and imprisonment of senior officials who were corrupt, or too obviously corrupt, has sent a message to all senior officials in jobs giving them access to the swollen defense budget that is now 6.7 percent of GDP. Before the invasion it was 3.6 percent. Putin thought the invasion would quickly overthrow the Ukrainian government. That did not happen and the costs of that war are more than Russia can afford. This is nothing new, it was decades of spending 15 percent of GDP on defense, and tolerating a lot of corruption by senior officials, that caused the Soviet Union to collapse in 1991. Many Russian economists and bankers believe another economic collapse, similar to what destroyed the Soviet Union, is possible unless the increased defense spending is restrained along with the growing corruption.