September 2, 2024: The world has gone through many unexpected changes since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. The war is not over and Russia is losing. But there’s more, a lot more. Ukraine was the first near-peer war since World War II ended in 1945. Near-peer means a war between somewhat equal nations, each with roughly the same level of military technology and capabilities.

As happened during World War II, near-peer wars provide a reality check on existing ideas of how you fight a war. This means both sides were forced to innovate in ways no one expected. That happened in the Ukraine war, whose most surprising innovation was the rapid evolution of drones, otherwise known as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. The changes were wide ranging, including Ukraine modifying its military organization to accommodate all these changes. The most obvious example of this was Ukraine creating a new branch of their military, the Drone Force. This is in addition to the Ukrainian Air Force that consists of manned aircraft. The Drone Force does not control the drones Ukrainian forces use regularly but does contribute to developing new drone models and organizing mass production for those new models that are successful. Drones were an unexpected development that had a huge impact on how battles in Ukraine's current war are fought. Drones were successful because they were cheap, easily modified, and expendable.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces were soon using cheap, under a thousand dollars, quadcopter drones controlled by soldiers a kilometer or more away using FPV (First Person Viewing) goggles to see what the day/night video camera on the drone can see. Adding night vision at least doubles the cost for each drone, so not all of them have that capability. Each of these drones carries half a kilogram of explosives, so it can instantly turn the drone into a flying bomb that can fly into a target and detonate. This is an awesome and debilitating weapon when used in large numbers over the combat zone. If a target isn’t moving or requires more explosive power that the drones can supply, one of the drone operators can call in artillery, rocket, or missile fire, or even an airstrike. Larger, fixed wing drones are used for long range, often over a thousand kilometers, operations against targets deep inside Russia. Ultimately, the drones caused more casualties than conventional artillery. Overall the drones were cheaper and more flexible than howitzers and mortars.

A major limitation to the expansion of drone operations was the need for trained drone operators. These operators need over a hundred hours of training before they are able to start operating these drones, and another hundred hours of actual use before they are able to make the most out of the system. These small drones are difficult to shoot down until they get close to the ground and the shooter is close enough, as in less than a few hundred meters, away to successfully target a drone with a bullet or two and bring it down. Troops are rarely in position to do this, so most of these drones are able to complete their mission, whether it is a one-way attack or a reconnaissance and surveillance mission. The recon missions are usually survivable and enable the drone to be reused. All these drones are constantly performing surveillance, which means that both sides commit enough drones to maintain constant surveillance over a portion of the front line, to a depth, into enemy territory, of at least a few kilometers.

This massive use of FPV-armed drones has revolutionized warfare in Ukraine, and both sides are producing as many as they can. Earlier in the Ukraine War Russia used Iranian Shahed-136 drones that Iran sold for about $200,000 each. Ukraine demonstrated that you could design and build drones with similar capabilities at less than a tenth of what the Shahed-136 cost. The Iranian drone was more complex than it needed to be and even the Russians soon realized this and turned from the Shahed-136 for more capable drones they copied from Ukrainian designs or ones Russians designed. Ukrainian drone proliferation began when many individual Ukrainians or small teams designed and built drones. The drones served as potential candidates for widespread use and mass production. This proliferation of designers and manufacturers led to rapid evolution of drone capabilities and uses. Those who could not keep up were less successful in combat and suffered higher losses.

Military specialists from the 32 NATO nations supporting Ukraine with, so far, about $200 billion in aid, were able to examine the new developments personally and also receive technical details. NATO leaders realized that the Ukraine War produced many changes that no one anticipated. This happens every time there is a war. NATO and military organizations worldwide are now increasing their spending and modifying what they buy. Drones are in, many pre-Ukraine technologies are out. Defense manufacturers have had to revamp their production and research efforts. Worldwide defense spending went from $2 trillion in 2021 to over $2.5 trillion in 2024.

Military leaders are scrambling to equip their own forces with the most effective examples of this new drone technology. Not having enough of these to match the number the enemy has in a portion of the front means you are at a serious disadvantage in that area. These drones are still evolving in terms of design and use and becoming more effective and essential.

One countermeasure that can work for a while is electronic jamming of the drones control signal. Drone guidance systems are constantly modified or upgraded to cope with this. Most drones have flight control software that sends drones with jammed control signals back to where they took off from to land for later use. The jammers are on the ground and can be attacked by drones programmed to home in on the jamming signal. Countermeasures can be overcome and the side that can do this more quickly and completely has an advantage. That advantage is usually temporary because both sides are putting a lot of effort into keeping their combat drones effective on the battlefield.

The emergence of drones as a new, novel, and decisive form of air power is the most recent of similar events that took place during the last century. During the last century the U.S. Air Force has advocated military victory achieved mainly with air power. This attitude took root after the 1914-19 World War I when the Army Air Corps, predecessor of the USAF, got rid of most of its numerous reconnaissance aircraft and concentrated on bombers and fighters. Then came the popular belief that larger bomber aircraft would dominate future wars. This never came to pass and, every time there was a war, the air force had to scramble to expand its meager peacetime reconnaissance force to meet the realities of war. This was not so bad during World War II because the air force was still part of the army but, after World War II, the Army Air Force became the independent U.S. Air Force and sought to control everything that flew over land. That meant army attempts to retain small reconnaissance aircraft and cargo aircraft were constantly opposed by the air force. The army valued prolific and prompt aerial reconnaissance more than the air force and this led to a dispute that was not settled until quite recently.

Back in the 1950s, after a decade of bickering, the Department of Defense ordered the army to stick with helicopters while the air force got nearly all the fixed-wing aircraft. The army was allowed to keep some single-engine artillery spotter aircraft and some twin-engine transports and intelligence collecting aircraft. That was it. But four decades later, in the 1990s as electronic components became smaller, cheaper, more capable, and reliable, drones became practical and reliable aircraft for military use. The U.S. Army, and the CIA, quickly got a lot of them. Drones have no aircrew in them so the army does not consider them part of the half-century old compromise with the air force. At first, the air force paid little attention to the growing capabilities of drones. That was because the air force was run by pilots who took it for granted that nothing in the air was really useful unless it had a pilot flying it. The army and the CIA soon delivered an unexpected reality check to the air force. At that point, the CIA was already arming their large Predator drones with Hellfire missiles and the army eventually did the same.

With the army again flying armed aircraft in the form of armed drones, in addition to the armed helicopters it has always had, the air force began to notice. The army argument was that these larger drones work better for them if they are under the direct control of army combat brigades. The air force saw that as inefficient, and preferred to have one large pool of larger drones which are deployed as needed. This difference of opinion reflects basic differences in how the army and air force deploy and use their combat forces. The army has found that a critical factor in battlefield success is teamwork among members of a unit, and subordinate units in a brigade. While the air force accepts this as a critical performance issue for their aircraft squadrons, they deem it irrelevant for army use of drones. Seeing army MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones doing visual and electronic reconnaissance and firing missiles at ground targets, the air force sees itself losing control of missions it has dominated since its founding in 1948.

One thing the army acquisition of thousands of reconnaissance drones does not change is the air force loss of interest in aerial reconnaissance and surveillance after each war. Air force reluctance to develop, build and maintain a large strategic reconnaissance force led the CIA to using its considerable clout and budget developing strategic reconnaissance aircraft like the U-2 and SR-71 manned aircraft and surveillance satellites. The CIA also pioneered the use of larger drones like the 1.1-ton Predator and armed them. This helped the army win permission from the Department of Defense to expand its force of armed aircraft beyond helicopter gunships.

The army managed to keep its drones and that proved extremely important because, with the war on terror winding down, the air force is spending a lot less on aerial reconnaissance. The air force is buying fewer RQ-4 Global Hawk, and RQ-170 Sentinel strategic recon drones. The 17 elderly E-8 JSTARS battlefield surveillance aircraft, which proved so valuable after their first combat use in 1991, last flew in late 2023 and all these aircraft have been retired. JSTARS used an AESA ground radar that could track friendly and enemy forces from the air. While this was great for the army, it was not seen as a high priority item for the air force.

The army replaced the JSTARS capabilities with ABMS (Advanced Battle Management System) software that networked larger numbers of drones and presented what the drones had observed or were observing to multiple users. It was another example of drone quantity and versatility replacing older, very expensive, individual systems like JSTARS. For the army this was a major plus because the 1950s agreement prohibited army operation of large aircraft like the four-engine JSTARS. This changed because during major conflicts the air force did not oppose the army use of many smaller, two-engine versions of these specialized electronic warfare or surveillance aircraft. The army has learned that lesson and is now retaining more of those two-engine aircraft and equipping some of their larger drones to do this work. Now drones are replacing all aircraft except those that transport people and equipment.

In spite of negative air force attitudes, the air force did have some solid accomplishments to its credit. In some areas, it has been extremely successful. This includes gaining, since 1945 and maintaining ever since, air supremacy wherever it operates. Maintaining that capability is not easily accomplished or cheap and the air force gives air supremacy its highest priority, except in wartime when it has a lot more money and is redirected to accommodate army needs.

These air force attitudes have hurt the army in other ways. When it comes to influencing the war on the ground the air force is much less dominant. This is despite air force efforts to maintain its ability to bomb targets in direct support of ground operations. The air force blind spot when it comes to air reconnaissance has hurt its overall effectiveness. Blame this on a bad attitude towards BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment). This is the business of figuring out what to bomb, and what the impact on the enemy is after you bomb. The problem of the air force leaders being deceived by the people on the ground being bombed began during World War II. This was when air forces used large scale aerial bombing for the first time. Right after that conflict, the U.S. did a thorough survey of the impact of strategic bombing on Germany and Japan. It was discovered that the impact was far different from what air force BDA during the war had indicated.

The air force vowed to do better next time but, as experience in Korea (1950-3), Vietnam (1965-72), Kuwait (1991) and Kosovo (1999), Iraq (2003) and throughout the war on terror demonstrated, the enemy on the ground continued to have an edge when it came to deceiving the most energetic BDA efforts. The only proven technique for beating the BDA problem was to have people on the ground, up close, checking up on targets, while the fighting was going on. Those with powerful air forces do not want to do this because of the risk of some of their commandos getting killed or captured, and because the intel and air force people were sure that they knew what enemy was up to down there.

The people on the ground have consistently demonstrated an ability to deceive aerial surveillance. Even during the early 21st century, when the U.S. developed persistent drone surveillance, the irregular forces they were facing proved capable of reducing the effectiveness of the drone effort. This spotlights another useful fact; airpower can be useful on the ground but that happens over time and not quickly. The problem here is with voters and the media. Both demand quick victory and in the U.S. that has developed into the three year rule in that public support for a war, no matter how enthusiastic it was at first, is largely gone after three years. If an air campaign can’t get it done in three years that effort comes under media and political attack no matter how effective it has been.

But there's another problem. The army and air force have a different outlook on planning and risk. The air force sees warfare as a much tidier and predictable affair than the army experiences regularly. In this respect, the air force and navy are closely aligned. Both are technical services, who are used to exercising more control over their forces than do army generals. The army sees warfare as more unpredictable and has adapted to that unpredictability. The army generals are usually skeptical of the air force's ability to take down foes from the air and the army is usually right.

Despite being a successful high-tech operation, American air forces, especially the Navy and USAF, frequently have trouble adjusting to changes they do not agree with. When the Cold War ended in 1991 the air force was still largely thinking about continuing to operate as they had done in the Cold War, but the technology and tactics of warfare were changing. The post-Cold War enemy no longer consisted of large, organized forces spread over huge areas. The enemy was increasingly irregulars who were harder to spot from the air. The air force reluctantly adapted, in part because the army and CIA adopted new reconnaissance and surveillance techniques like drones and persistent surveillance. This pattern is returning as the air force reorganizes after the decade of heavy combat and big budgets the war on terror produced. Now the air force is turning its attention to a near-peer opponent in the form of a rapidly expanding and modernizing China's military. Unexpectedly the Ukraine War emerged first with Russia and Ukraine fighting each other.

Ukrainians had the advantage of material and intellectual support from NATO countries. In the end the winner of any stage of the war was the side that was the most resourceful and innovative. This process has been present in warfare for centuries but during the last century the changes and innovations came so quickly that the process was visible. This disrupted the long-established missions each of the military services had established.

For example, as successful as these new air reconnaissance tools were they did not seem like a suitable long-term job for the air force. The other services disagreed, and it took the better part of a decade after 2001 to get the air force to come around. In 2005 the air force deployed its first Predator drone unit and in 2009 it put its first Reapers to work. They were following the CIA in this area, which caused some misgivings among senior air force leadership. But the army and Congress were calling for more of what the CIA was doing with armed drones for surveillance and attack and the air force joined in.

What the CIA pioneered was persistent surveillance with armed drones. The 24/7 observation by the drones enabled CIA or air force intel analysts to compile information about the target and order one or more missiles fired as soon as the key target was identified and located. This led to an ever-growing list of terrorist leaders and their key subordinates killed in this way. At the same time, this use of surveillance and precision weapons led to lower collateral, as in nearby civilian casualties, which plummeted to historical, and remarkable, lows.

Air force traditionalists warned that in a conventional war this sort of thing would not work. Where the enemy had modern air defense systems and jet fighters the Predator and Reaper drones would be impractical because they would be quickly shot down. But that was not the type of war being waged twenty years ago and it was pointed out to the air force that the military has to deal with what they are faced with, not just with what they prefer. Moreover, even in a conventional war there is still work for these new tactics and the tech that makes it possible. The air force still disagreed but did not have a persuasive alternative. The air force still wanted more money for the stealthy F-35 fighter and a new stealth bomber. This is despite the fact that other nations were developing more and more sensors that could nullify stealth.

The air force has been in this position before. This was seen during the 1960s when the air force and navy aviation suffered unexpectedly high aircraft losses over Vietnam because their aircraft and pilots were not prepared for the lower-tech Russian aircraft used against them by the Vietnamese. This led aircraft to be again equipped with cannon because the new air-to-air missiles were not yet reliable enough to replace the old fashioned cannon.

Then came the concept of using your own aircraft for aggressor, or dissimilar tactics, training. This began in 1969 when the U.S. Navy established the original Top Gun fighter pilot school. This was done in response to the poor performance of its pilots against North Vietnamese pilots flying Russian fighters. What made the Top Gun operation different was that the training emphasized how the enemy aircraft and pilots operated. This was called dissimilar training. In the past, American pilots practiced against American pilots, with everyone flying American aircraft and using American tactics. It worked in World War II because the enemy pilots were not getting a lot of practice and were using similar aircraft and tactics anyway. Most importantly, there was a lot of aerial combat going on, providing ample opportunity for on-the-job training. Not so in Vietnam, where the quite different Russian-trained North Vietnamese were giving U.S. aviators a difficult time. The four week Top Gun program solved the problem. The air force followed shortly with its similar Red Flag school. In the early 1980s, the Russians established a dissimilar air combat school, and the Chinese followed in 1987.

After a century of trying, the ground forces and non-aviation naval forces still cannot get the people up there to come down and get a much needed reality check on what is happening down below where battles and wars are still decided. Meanwhile the proliferation of surveillance and armed drones have in many cases replaced conventional air forces, at least for operations close to the ground and requiring more urgency to find and attack targets.