August 29, 2026: Drones, specifically the quad or octocopter types, have been around for a long time. One of the earliest examples was in 1849 when Austrian forces were besieging Venice. The Austrians assembled 200 hot air balloons, each carrying about 12 kg of explosives. The Austrians underestimated the winds' quirky nature, and only one bomb exploded in Venice; the rest landed in the sea or uninhabited areas.

The next efforts occurred during World War 1, when British and American scientists developed radio-controlled aircraft to destroy German Zeppelins bombing British cities. These drones were flown into the Zeppelin, bringing it down. The Americans developed what they called an aerial torpedo, a precursor to the Tomahawk cruise missile. The aerial torpedo was not operational until just after the war ended. In the 20 years between the two World Wars. Britain created drones that could be launched from warships. The Americans first used the term drones for radio-controlled aerial targets. They also used primitive television sensors with heat-seeking/infrared in drones designed to down enemy bombers. The Russians also experimented with drones in the 1930s but never got them usable.

In the 1930s, a British actor working in Hollywood developed a radio-controlled drone called the RP that the U.S. Army called the OQ-2. Over 15,000 of these were used during World War II as targets for fighters and bomber machine-gunners. At the same time, an American inventor developed devices that allowed a drone aircraft to operate BVR/Beyond Visual Range. The Americans developed a guided cruise missile that worked, but arguments over how it should be used delayed the weapon from entering combat until late 1944, when hundreds were used against Japanese targets in the Pacific.

The Germans developed and used the first combat cruise missile, the 2-ton V-1, and ballistic missile, the V-2. About 30,000 V-1s were produced, and a third of those were launched against Britain, mainly London. About 2,400 V-1s hit London, destroying much property and killing 6,200 and wounding nearly 18,000. Most of the casualties were civilians.

After World War II, the United States was the major developer and user of drones. As jet-propelled aircraft became common, so did jet-powered drones used for target practice and as combat decoys. The U.S. also used radio-controlled B-17s to observe and gather air samples of nuclear tests. Eventually, the military realized it could use smaller, more capable video cameras on reconnaissance drones to collect information. The Soviet Union also began to develop similar drones. The American surveillance drones were used extensively during the 1960s and early 70s over Vietnam. Many of these drones were launched from C-130 transports, giving them longer range and more time over areas of interest. The drones were equipped with parachutes, which were deployed when the drones were over friendly territory, and they, or just their cameras and film, could be recovered by helicopters. The North Vietnamese air force sought to use these drones for target practice, but only six drones were brought down.

During the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, about 600 Iranian Qods Mohajer-1 drones were used. Meanwhile, smugglers and other criminal organizations, as well as Islamic terrorists, were enthusiastically adopting the use of drones. Drones were used by the Russians in their battles in Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, Armenia, and so on. Criminals used drones for smuggling drugs or getting contraband to imprisoned gangsters. Islamic terrorists used drones for surveillance and attacking civilians as well as police and soldiers.

Armed forces worldwide were slower to adopt drones widely. In 2016, when the Chinese Mavic quad-copter drones became available, soldiers often bought them with their own money to increase their combat capabilities. The Ukrainian war actually began in 2014, when Russia seized Crimea and portions of two eastern Ukrainian provinces. Both sides used drones. By then, Russia also had a large surveillance drone similar to the American Predator and Reaper from the 1990s. All three drones were used extensively and remain in use. Iran also developed its triangular propeller-driven Shaheed drones. So far, nearly half a million of these drones, including the Russian Geran, have been produced.

The Drone Revolution occurred when the Ukrainians developed full-on drone warfare with novel new ways to design and deploy drones. FPV drones have radically changed modern warfare. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry. Each FPV drone costs less than $1,000. Operators use the drone's camera to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or on infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, drone operators often work in pairs, with one flying behind the other and focusing on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When the reconnaissance drone finds a target, the armed drone is directed to it. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. Reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air searching for a target.

The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only twelve percent of those attacks destroyed the target, which could be a vehicle, a group of infantry, or even a sniper firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense is having a nearby open door the sniper can run to or dive through as the FPV drone approaches. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone is coming down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.

In 2026, Ukraine plans to build at least eight million, and possibly ten million drones. They built about five million drones last year. In 2024, the total was 1.5 million drones. There have been problems. Chinese component producers are having a hard time keeping up, and last year, to assist the Russians, China halted sending drone components to Ukraine. Suppliers in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere quickly stepped in. At least 70 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, and the rest are built from imported parts or whole assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For FPV (first-Person View) drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered a form of ammunition.

Both sides now use FPV drones, but they use them differently in combat. The Ukrainians seek out high-value targets like armored vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, anti-aircraft systems, and storage sites for munitions or other supplies. Russian supply trucks are another prime target.

Russia has lost its war with Ukraine but will continue to send soldiers there for years until they declare victory and finish rewriting their history books.