September 17, 2024:
Ukraine lost one its new F-16 fighters on August 26. It crashed, apparently because of an error by one of the Ukrainian pilots who are still learning how to operate the new, for Ukraine, F-16s. The deceased pilot, Oleksiy “Moonfish” Mes, was a veteran pilot and a major supporter of F-16s for Ukraine. He was one of the first Ukrainian pilots trained to fly F-16s. This training took place in Denmark.
At the same time, Ukrainian leaders revealed that several F-16s and their Ukrainian pilots had already been used to shoot down incoming Russian missiles. While Ukraine has been successful using NATO supplied anti-missile systems, they wanted F-16s. These aircraft were superior to the Russian designed aircraft Ukraine had long been using. The F-16s were more effective and there were a larger number of special bombs and missiles these aircraft could use. Ukraine is short of anti-aircraft missiles and systems, and so needs F-16s for their defensive interception capabilities as well as offensive air superiority and ground missions.
Ukraine wants 130 F-16s but so far NATO countries have pledged only 91 of them and, as of September, only 20 were in Ukraine. A crucial bottleneck is how quickly Ukrainian F-16 pilots can be trained.
As of August 2024, Ukraine has received several dozen F-16 fighters but has not yet used them in combat save to intercept Russian cruise missiles. Ukrainian personnel are still learning how to operate and maintain the aircraft. The United States government currently forbids Ukraine from using them because it is unhappy over Ukraine forces recently invading Russian territory in the Kursk area. Disputes among American politicians over aid to Ukraine and how that aid can be used have limited how much Ukraine could accomplish with American weapons. Increasingly, Ukrainians have been using locally built drones and weapons to go after Russian targets the Americans refuse to allow U.S. weapons to be used against. The Ukrainians have been successful at this, and since 2023 have destroyed many military and economic targets deep inside western Russia. This includes attacks on Russian bases in Murmansk province, which is on the northwest coast, and 2,100 kilometers from Ukraine.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, Ukraine wanted F-16s because it had done what it could with its Russian-built MiG-29s, but heavy combat losses meant replacements were needed and Ukraine preferred F-16s over other Western fighters. So would Russia but Ukraine has a better chance of getting them. Both Russian and Ukrainian fighter pilots were familiar with the superiority of the F-16 over the MiG-29 and even its major upgrade, the MiG-35. For a few years after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russian and Ukrainian pilots had an opportunity to fly in an F-16. Western pilots had already done this with MiG-29s because some MiG-29 pilots defected to the West while flying their Mig-29s.
The Russian situation in Ukraine has become increasingly perilous and it was feared the Ukrainian F-16s would not become operational before the war ends or degenerates into a Russian defeat Russia refuses to acknowledge. So far, the war continues and, despite substantial losses, Russian leader Vladimir Putin insists the war will go on as long as he is in power.
Initially NATO nations supplying F-16s suggested that Ukraine not use its F-16s inside Russia or too close to the Russian border because the Russians would make an extraordinary effort to down one or more F-16s. Russia is embarrassed by the inability of their answer to the F-16, the MiG-29, to match the F-16s in aerial combat. Instead Russia is concentrating lots of anti-aircraft systems in border areas where the F-16s might operate. This is an effort to shoot one of the F-16s down. This would deflect criticism of the poor performance of the MiG-29.
Since 1981 over 1,600 MiG29s have been produced and the aircraft is still produced in small quantities each year. Upgrades were added haphazardly and many of these did not work as intended. There was inadequate quality control and Russian manufacturers were not able to fix these problems. There was no uniformity in adding or maintaining upgrades. This resulted in a lot of MiG-29s with different capabilities. It was difficult just to keep track of which MiG-29 could do what and with what degree of consistency. There was also a problem with ergonomics, or ease of use. Ukrainian pilots who trained to use F-16s found the layout of the F-16 cockpit more efficiently organized and much easier to use.
MiG-29s were expensive to maintain and, without adequate maintenance, became dangerous to fly. Russian warplanes were never as durable and long-lasting as western models. Western aircraft were designed to spend much more time in the air because western pilots received a lot more training.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian Air Forces had a difficult time recovering and rebuilding after the end of the Cold War. The Russian Air Force had over 10,000 military aircraft in 1991. The mighty Soviet Red Air Force instantly lost nearly half its strength because the 14 new states formed from the Soviet Union took possession of whatever warplanes were stationed within their borders. For both Russia and Ukraine, 1991 was followed by two decades of sharply lower defense budgets that cut maintenance and eliminated all but a few purchases of new aircraft.
There were efforts to refurbish older aircraft. After 2000 Russia steadily increased defense spending, but it was not enough. By 2015 Russia could only put into action about ten percent of the warplanes the Red Air Force could at its 1991 peak. To make matters worse, growing development problems with its new Su-57 stealth fighter meant that Russia had to depend even more on late Cold War designs which included the Su-27/30, MiG-29, and Su-25, plus some older heavy bomber and recon aircraft. Upgrades made to those aircraft since 1991 were mainly for export customers. Russian defense firms needed the cash, not another IOU from the Russian government.
Ukraine inherited 200 MiG-29s in 1991 but only kept about three dozen in service because of the high cost of maintenance. Despite that, after the Russian 2014 attack Ukraine began an upgrade program for its operational MiG-29s. The first of Ukraine’s MiG-29MU1 aircraft entered service in 2018 and, by the second time Russia invaded in February 2022, there were 18 MiG-29MU1s and one MiG-29MU2 with further enhancements available.
The air war over Ukraine was initially a tactical win for Ukraine, but that was costly, with 47 fighters or attack aircraft lost. Twenty of these were MiG-29s, four were Su-27 fighters and the rest were twelve Su-24 and Su-25 ground attack aircraft. Russia lost four Su-24s, 13 Su-25s, ten Su-34s, successor to the older Su-24 and one Su-35 (an upgraded Su-27). The Ukrainians prevented Russia from achieving air superiority and forced them to launch their airstrikes from inside Russia using air-to-ground missiles. That has remained the case for the entire war. Four of the new Su-57 stealth aircraft were also used for this and the Su-57s never entered Ukrainian air space.
Ukraine has been offered several dozen MiG-29s that were still in use, or in active storage, by NATO nations that were phasing out their MiG-29s for Western jets. Those transfers were initially stalled by disagreements within NATO about sending these MiGs or F-16s and A-10s to the Ukrainians. That hasn’t prevented less visible assistance, like supplying Ukraine with MiG-29 spare parts as well as pilot transition training programs operated by American volunteers, some of them former F-16 and A-10 pilots, who know how to obtain unclassified manuals and equipment to create flight simulators adequate for pilot transition training. Programs like this have already succeeded for other types of Western weapons Ukraine wanted and anticipated getting them by selecting and training operators in advance.
The MiG-29 entered Russian service in 1983. Some 1,600 MiG-29s were produced, with about 900 of them exported. The original MiG-29 was a 22-ton aircraft roughly comparable to the F-16, but it depends a lot on which version of either aircraft you are talking about. Russia is making a lot of money upgrading MiG-29s. Not just adding new electronics but also making the airframe more robust. The MiG-29 was originally rated at 2,500 total flight hours. At that time, the early 80s, Russia expected MiG-29s to fly about a hundred or so hours a year. Reality was different. India, for example, flew them at nearly twice that rate, as did Malaysia. Russia offered to upgrade the airframe so that the aircraft could fly up to 4,000 hours, with more life extension upgrades promised. This was not easy to do, as the MiG-29 had a history of unreliability and premature mechanical and electronic breakdowns. It was also more expensive to maintain than comparable Su-27/30 and foreign fighter jets.
Ukraine made the most it could out of its MiG-29s with its own upgrades. But early in the 2022 war Russian missiles damaged the Lviv facility, the only place equipped to carry out upgrades. Ukraine needed more fighters and, like most long-time MiG customers, wanted anything but more MiGs.