A years is the best that, those who believe Fidel Castro is terminally ill, will give the Cuban dictator. But even those analysts who think he may recover, believe he will never return to power. His brother Raul has a firm grip on the government apparatus, and has forged an alliance with elements in the Communist Party and Armed Forces, that are suspicious of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' regional ambitions. It was Fidel who was so found of Chavez. Raul Castro saw that Chavez was an unstable and unpredictable fellow who could be trouble in the long run. The two Castro brothers have long operated by agreeing to disagree on many issues. But with Fidel sick, and Raul in the drivers seat, that arrangement may be changing.