March 26, 2026:
A growing number of Russian leaders and Russians in general are concerned about the increasing influence of China. Not only is China supplying many goods previously produced in Russia, but Chinese workers are crossing the borders in eastern Russia to help deal with the labor shortage. Because of over a million men lost in the Ukraine war, and another million leaving the country to avoid military service and an ever-declining birth rate, the Russian population is shrinking. As more Chinese move into eastern Russia, those areas will eventually be more Chinese than Russian. China never renounced its claims on Russian territory in the Far East, where the Russian city of Vladivostok was, until 1860, the Chinese city of Yongmingcheng. The Russian Far East is already dominated economically by the Chinese, and the Russians rightly fear that the Chinese want these territories back. Russia would probably comply because they need China as an ally and are too weak economically and militarily to resist such Chinese demands.
Russia is increasingly dependent on China for economic support and help in rebuilding an economy ravaged by more than four years of war in Ukraine. China is willing to help, not as an ally but as a patron for its new Russian client state. China seeks to turn Russia into a vassal state.
This is nothing new, not when you consider that the traditional Chinese name for their country is Zhongguo, which is usually translated into English as Middle Kingdom. But a more literal and accurate translation is “everything under the heavens”. Until the 21st century this mainly meant adjacent land areas. But now China points out that everything means the South China Sea, portions of India and the Russian Pacific Coastal region. The Zhongguo tradition also means China does not have allies, just powerful trading partners, like America and European nations. Then there are client states like North Korea, Pakistan and others who deny the status, like Russia. That has always been the Chinese outlook, and it hasn’t changed.
Some things have changed. China finally underwent the Industrial Revolution during the 1980s. While that made China an economic superpower, China is no longer a self-sufficient continental power, as it had been for thousands of years. Now China is dependent on international trade to keep its economy going. Treating foreigners with disdain, and often deceiving and exploiting them, has consequences. The most immediate example is how China is dealing with its recent debt crises and the possibility of a major economic disruption. China is seeking to make its enemies suffer for this, instead of itself, and so far that appears to be working.
Less hostile foreigners can also be a problem. This can be seen in the problems China is having with its two nuclear-armed clients, Russia and Pakistan. Both these clients have used their connections with China to carry out aggressive actions against weaker neighbors.
China supports this misbehavior because China is also an empire trying to reclaim lost territories. That some of those territories are currently Russia’s Far East is not officially discussed in Russia or China but is no secret to many Russians and Chinese. That is a problem for another day as currently Russia and China support each other’s imperial ambitions in Ukraine and the South China Sea and help each other out to deal with any associated problems, especially the UN or economic sanctions.
China does not want to fight a war to achieve this hegemony, and it doesn’t have to. The Chinese economy is the second largest in the world while its military exists mainly to protect China from external threats. The Chinese economy is the offensive weapon China is using to dominate the globe.