July 6, 2026: By the end of the decade Taiwan expects to arm its aircraft, ships and land-based batteries with 1,800 anti-ship missiles. These missiles are part of a lethal defense strategy that includes the use of short range missiles and swarms of attack drones, including many FPV/First Person View models capable of targeting specific Chinese ship types.

Taiwan also has to defend its land based installation from the thousands of ballistic missiles China has, for decades, maintained in readiness to attack military and economic targets in Taiwan. Until recently Taiwan only had some American Patriot and some locally produced Brave Wind 3 and Sky Bow air defense missiles. Taiwan is also investing $8 billion in more of its existing air defense missiles as well as new ones in development. By the end of the decade, Taiwan expects to have a Taiwan Dome air defense system protecting the island from most of the incoming Chinese missiles.

Taiwan is spending an additional $24 billion on American weapons while $14 billion in additional weapons are already underway. This will include a substantial number of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, a weapon that has been around for decades and has been used successfully in combat. Taiwan is also seeking assistance from American manufacturers of drones. The Americans have access to Ukrainian technology and experience and built many drones for Ukraine using Ukrainian specifications. Taiwan considers Ukrainian drone tactics worth emulating while developing drone technology and tactics against a Chinese naval effort to seize the island. Taiwanese military officials believe a combination of anti-ship missiles plus air and surface drone swarms drone swarms would cripple a Chinese attack. China will develop countermeasures and if Taiwan can deal with that on a long term basis, the Chinese may well calculate that it is better to hold back on an invasion attempt that it is to risk the demoralization and political consequences of a defeat inside China. The CCP/Chinese Communist Party might not survive such a debacle.