August 2, 2024: In 2014 the NATO alliance decided to set a two percent of GDP defense spending goal for members. This was in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine and seizure of Crimea and portions of two east Ukraine provinces. It was later revealed that Russia planned to absorb Ukraine into Russia. This was a violation of a basic United Nations rule that the territorial integrity of member nations must be respected. Russia maintained the tension in its occupied Ukrainian territories until it invaded Ukraine in early 2022. NATO had originally been formed for mutual protection from the Russian threat. In 2022 the Russians revealed that the threat was very real and could next be turned against NATO members in eastern Europe, starting with Poland and the three smaller Baltic States. In response Poland increased defense spending to over four percent of GDP and the Baltic States had a similar response. By 2024 the outcome of the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine was still unclear. One thing was obvious, the Russians weren’t winning and had taken such heavy losses that Russia had to improvise to maintain effective forces in Ukraine. Russia is no longer on the offensive and is trying to find a politically suitable way to end the war. Russian leader Putin complicates this by insisting that Russia keep the territories it conquered in 2014-2015.

The Ukraine War is now in its third year. Ukraine received enormous material support from NATO countries. This came in the form of over $100 billion in military and other aid. That number is increasing each year. Russia could only depend on North Korea and Iran for aid, which Russia had to pay for. China also offered economic aid, which also had to be paid for. The sanctioned Russian economy became weaker as the war in Ukraine continued. The Russian government was having a hard time explaining this to the Russian people who wondered why the Russian military, which existed to defend Russia from invasion, was instead being used to invade a neighbor and doing badly at it. So far Russia has suffered losses of over half a million soldiers dead, wounded, missing and surrendered. The surrenders are increasing, which is always a sign of bad morale.

Meanwhile NATO responded by urging members to meet the two percent of GDP defense spending rule to discourage Russia from invading anyone else. In 2024 NATO reported that non-United States NATO members will, on average, meet the two percent rule for the first time since 2014. Nearly all members have increased defense spending, Members closer to Russia, like Poland, the Baltic States and Germany, have exceeded the two percent requirement. Some NATO members considered the Ukrainian experience a warning that should be heeded and are planning to gradually increase spending through the 2030s until two percent or more was achieved. For many NATO nations this is politically difficult because after 1991 much of the defense spending was switched to social programs. This was popular with an older European population worried about how they would obtain the resources they needed to live a comfortable retirement. Elderly voters are a growing segment of the population in European countries. While the elderly fear the Russians, they also want to preserve their comfortable way of life. The two percent solution is a problem for them.

What is happening now, happened before. During the 1948-1991 Cold War between the Soviet Union and NATO, member nations spent an average of three percent on defense. After the Soviet Union collapsed and fell apart in 1991, NATO members saw an opportunity to reduce defense spending and apply the savings to other projects. This was called the peace dividend and it weakened the ability of many NATO nations to respond to renewed Russian aggression in Ukraine from 2014 to 2022 and now 2024. No one expected the Russians to undertake such a reckless war, which they could not afford. Russia later revealed that they believed Ukrainian resistance would quickly collapse within weeks or months, leaving Russia with an easy victory. Those easy victories rarely happen and Russia discovered how badly an invasion could be for them in Ukraine. As long as the war continues, Ukraine and NATO nations will have to continue supporting the war effort.

Russia is weakening and rather obviously looking for a way out. Russian leader Vladimir Putin refuses, so far, to implement the simplest solution and withdraw all Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea and portions of those two eastern provinces. Putin sees such a drastic solution as a threat to his continued rule. That’s probably correct but the more Putin delays taking this step, the more damage is done to the Russian economy and the patience of suffering Russian civilians.

The United States, which long provided the bulk of NATO defense spending, has been urging European nations to step up and pay for their own defense. The prosperous European nations can do this and the Americans are threatening to cut their defense spending devoted to NATO nations in order to force the issue.