November 6, 2024: Ukraine wants peace and NATO membership to discourage future Russian aggression. Russia wants to absorb Ukraine into a revived Russian empire. When the Soviet Union collapsed and split into fifteen different nations. This was the end of an empire that was created in the 1700s as an imperial state and reached its largest size in 1721 and maintained that size until a Russian republic was declared in 2017 after Russia admitted defeat in World War I and withdrew from the conflict. That led to a civil war and lasted into the 1920s after the establishment of a communist government in 1917. That government took control of a communist empire that lasted 69 years. When the empire collapsed in 1991, many Russians resented the loss of their imperial status. Men like Vladimir Putin, who was an intelligence officer when the end came in 1991, began working to restore the empire. In 1999 Putin took control of Russia and began his campaign to rebuild the empire. His first major success was in 2014 when he managed to take Crimea and two other provinces from Ukraine. He got all of Crimea but only half of the territory in Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in eastern Ukraine. For Putin, it was a start. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was supposed to quickly complete the absorption of Ukraine back into the new Russian empire.

In 2021 Russia occupied 42,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, that’s 27 percent of Ukraine. As of October 2024 Russia occupied 18 percent. While Russia gained some ground in the last two years, Ukrainian offensives have clawed back large swatches of Russian occupied Ukraine. In addition, an August 2024 Ukrainian offensive into Russia seized 1,200 square kilometers of Russian territory. In the last two months Russian forces have reduced that to 540 square kilometers.

Ukraine is asking NATO nations to provide more military support so that Ukrainian forces can continue their offensive. Russian leader Vladimir Putin is willing to make peace if Russia can keep the Ukrainian territory they already occupy. Meanwhile Russia has declared portions of Russian occupied Ukraine as part of Russia while other portions have been declared independent states guarded by Russian troops.

Putin believes continued military action in Ukraine will work. That’s because Putin has declared occupied parts of Ukraine as annexed by Russia while some areas are now recognized as independent statelets. All of these annexations and declarations of independence are illegal according to the UN and international law. The UN cannot declare the Russia actions void because Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN security council that have veto power over decisions by a majority of UN members. The other permanent members are China, France, Britain and the United States. These four members do not approve of Russian territorial ambitions in Ukraine and even if the UN condemned Russian actions, Russia would simply ignore this criticism and continue fighting.

Ukraine believes the only way to deal with Russian aggression is to fight back and that’s what Ukrainian forces are doing. With more military aid from NATO, especially guided bombs and missiles as well as anti-aircraft systems and armored vehicles, Ukraine can defend itself from Russian air strikes on civilian targets while continuing to advance into Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia. Ukraine also takes better care of its soldiers, who suffer lower casualties and have higher morale than their Russian counterparts. Russia is running out of soldiers, Ukraine is not.

There’s another factor to consider. The damage the sanctions have done to the Russian economy and growing disapproval of the war by Russians, especially military age men, has led to millions of Russian men leaving Russia. Many of these exiles expect to return after the war, but for now they cannot be involuntarily mobilized into the Russian army. The shortage of Russian troops has been so acute that Russia obtained 12,000 North Korean soldiers. These troops have never experienced combat and don’t speak Russian. It’s also been discovered that North Korea soldiers receive very rudimentary military training and many of them spend their time farming or working in factories. Russia is trying to deal with these shortcomings but it will take time. That means a few North Korean combat brigades will not be ready until early 2025, if then. South Korea fears that Russia has aided the North Korean weapons program. This is the payment for North Korean troops sent to Ukraine.

NATO is providing more than $40 billion worth of military aid to Ukraine in 2024 along with assurances that the aid will continue at these levels for as long as the war does. Putin believes that NATO states will tire of supporting Ukraine and eventually reduce aid to a trickle. The war will be decided by whether Putin or NATO is right. There are some fundamental realities to consider. While NATO nations and Ukraine continue to enjoy economic military progress, Russia is burdened by an economy ravaged by economic sanctions and labor shortages. With so many Russian men in the military or in exile, even hiring North Korean soldiers will not last long because Russia is running out of cash and popular support for a war Russia has been losing.

Ukraine wants to join NATO but cannot do so until the war ends. Putin intends to maintain some state of war indefinitely. NATO may eventually declare the war over and just ignore Putin.