January 16, 2025: Islamic terrorism is more of a threat to Moslems than anyone else, including the United States and Israel. The zealots leading these Islamic terrorist groups expect to die and kill a lot of opponents first. Not surprisingly, most of these victims are fellow Moslems who are considered insufficiently religious, heretical or opposed to terrorism. As a result some 90 percent of Islamic terrorists’ victims are Moslems.

For over a thousand years, Islamic zealots have generally avoided fighting anyone powerful enough to defeat them. There is no glory in failure at the hand of an infidel. The glory can be had if you slaughter infidels, the more the better.

This was the case last year in Africa, when al Qaeda JNIM Islamic terrorists based in Mali, attacked on the outskirts of the Burkina Faso town of Barsalogho and shot dead over 500 civilians. Using Mali as a sanctuary made it possible for JNIM to plan and organize such a bold and devastating operation. The JNIM gunmen quickly returned unharmed to their Mali sanctuary.

Since the separatist rebellion in northern Mali was defeated in 2012, Mali has faced ongoing problems with corruption, tribal rivalries, and Islamic terrorism. This has prevented peace and prosperity. The situation got worse in 2021 with another military coup, the third since 2012, which this time stemmed from internal disputes within the military. It led to threats from foreign donors to reduce or halt economic aid, especially if the Mali government did not protect the aid and ensure that it reached the people who needed it most.

The problems Mali had with aid donors created frustration over corrupt politicians stealing or misappropriation of foreign aid cash meant to support anti-terrorism and anti-separatist operations. The colonels in charge are reluctant to relinquish power and are attempting to achieve self-sufficiency despite the presence of UN peacekeepers and French troops dealing with the Islamic terrorism in the north.

The May 2021 coup ousted a civilian National Council of Transition or CNT leader, replacing him with a military colonel who then appointed pro-military officials. Despite criticism from foreign donors like France, the military threatened to seek alternative financial aid and managed to obtain the services of Russian mercenaries. Russia was interested in post-war economic deals with Mali and the Mali military government felt more comfortable dealing with the Russians than the French. Russia has supplied Mali with food and fertilizer and mercenaries to help deal with Tuareg separatists and Islamic terrorists in the north.

Over the last decade the Islamic terrorists have been operating closer and closer to the capital Bamako. In September 2024 there was an attack on a military base and the airport outside Bamako. Some aircraft were set on fire. The army captured fifteen of the attackers. In July about forty Russian mercenaries were ambushed and killed in the north near the Algerian border. A Tuareg militia carried out the attack during a sandstorm.

The coup leaders have utilized Mali's gold mines as a resource, though this has also led to protests and security crackdowns. Russia is helping Mali expand gold production The Russian presence is not welcome except to the army officers running the military government. The Tuaregs and local Islamic terror groups are particularly hostile to the Russian presence. The military government and their Russian allies have taken heavy losses recently but still control most of the country. This won’t last because popular unrest caused by growing poverty and violence is threatening the military government.

Going into 2025, the military government appears capable of surviving, while the activities of Russian mercenaries are not. They are also being hunted by Ukrainian special operations forces.

Another obscure Islamic terrorism campaign has taken place in Central Asia. Much has changed in this region since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Central Asia is the nations of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. These five nations have a total population of 77 million and nearly all adults are literate, compared to 27 percent literacy in neighboring Afghanistan. Decades of peace have enabled the local economies to prosper, with total GDP growing from $347 billion in 2021 to nearly $500 billion by the end of the decade. Kazakhstan has oil deposits and the highest per capita GDP of $33,000. Worst off is Kyrgyzstan, which has no known natural resource to export and a population of only 7.2 million, which explains its low per capita GDP of $6,300.

Central Asians are largely Moslem and their young men were aware of the fighting involving Islamic terrorists in the Middle East and neighboring Afghanistan. Since 2002, thousands of young men who sought to join Islamic terror groups could not do it in Central Asia. Instead these men had to travel somewhere else to act on their impulse to be active Islamic terrorists. Many Central Asian men joined ISIL, but not in Central Asia. With the elimination of the ISIL caliphate in Syria and Iraq in 2018, there were lots of documents and survivors, like families of ISIL men, some ISIL members, and local civilians, who were questioned and lots of data analyzed. The results were some accurate numbers about Central Asian participation in ISIL through the end of 2018. As many as 5,000 Central Asians made it to Syria. Over half survived and got out. More worrisome was the fact that for every Central Asian who tried to get into Syria, some were stopped at the Syrian border in Turkey and turned back or, in a few cases, arrested. The Turks collected data on those turned away and some of those were later captured or killed in Syria. Some of those turned back eventually made it in, but few returned home to become active Islamic terrorists. That is the pattern; many get radicalized, leave, and never return.

Because the potential Islamic terrorists left Central Asia and few returned, there have been few Islamic terror attacks in Central Asia. After each of these the response was swift and usually led to the capture of those responsible and others who were among the usual suspects but not known to be active. This effective counterterror response motivated many radicalized young men to seek safer nations in which to defend Islam with extreme violence.

Most of the nations involved here used to be part of the Soviet Union and still have effective secret police and local dictators to ruthlessly suppress dissent. People are putting up with this so far but popular anger about corruption and inefficient government is growing. The region has become an economic and diplomatic battleground for Russia and China, and China is winning. This is something Russia doesn’t like to discuss, but among Russians the real threat is from the east, not the west. China brings trade and prosperity, which Central Asians take advantage of.

The one enduring problem in Central Asia is poor government. This is the result of decades of misrule by the Soviet Union until 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed and the five Central Asian states were among the fourteen states to emerge from the Soviet Union, which had long been called by westerners, the Prison House of Nations. Local rule soon devolved into a form of local dictatorship with the dictator forced to behave in order to prevent a violent revolution. This allowed the new free-market economy to prosper, provide a better life for most Central Asians, and enough money for corrupt local rulers to live well and protect the new economies.

Going into 2025 the Central Asian nations all seek to modernize and improve their economies and job opportunities for the growing population of job seekers. Prosperity and plenty of jobs is a proven antidote for Islamic terrorism.