October 15, 2026:
Since early 2022, NATO countries have provided Ukraine with several hundred billion dollars’ worth of weapons and military supplies. While the Ukrainians appreciate this, their most significant battlefield successes have come from weapons developed by Ukrainian individuals, small groups, and the small companies that these entrepreneurial efforts create. Also forgotten is that Ukraine was the Soviet Union's Silicon Valley. Most Soviet innovations and new designs for weapons and military equipment came from there. Ukraine was also the area where huge quantities of weapons and equipment were concentrated to support the second wave of Soviet forces invading Western Europe. The invasion never came, but Ukraine kept all that equipment after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Ukraine immediately began selling off weapons and equipment and also offered to modify weapons for a fee to suit buyers' needs.
After the Russians invaded in 2022, Ukraine produced weapons for its own forces and continued to develop new weapons, like drones. Drones radically changed how wars are fought. These included not only aerial drones but also naval and ground drones. Now the ground drones are armed and fighting and killing Russian soldiers who perish without ever seeing a Ukrainian soldier. The Ukrainians are involved, but they are ten or twenty kilometers away in a bunker where they look at their targets on flat screens or via head-mounted viewing devices. All this has reduced Ukrainian casualties to the point that for every eight or nine Russian casualties there is only one Ukrainian injured.
Naturally, armies around the world want this new technology, and Ukraine is willing to sell it or co-produce it abroad under licensing agreements. Rebuilding Ukraine will cost trillions of dollars, and selling its new technology to NATO allies and other nations will help pay for the reconstruction.
Defense firms in NATO nations struggle to understand how this works. Traditional defense production relies on orders for batches of expensive weapons. Larger weapons can take from weeks to years to build. Smaller weapons and munitions can be produced quickly, but only from a few factories. In wartime, it can take a few months or more than a year to establish new arms plants and begin production. No NATO nations are at war and producing in wartime mode, but Ukraine is. As for the use of all the NATO military aid, Ukraine has been winning its war largely with Ukrainian-made weapons. In response, Ukraine has built whatever it needs, quickly, driven by necessity and the will to survive. It has filled gaps where traditional weapons were unavailable or inadequate. Ukrainian-designed and manufactured drones have become essential.
Ukraine’s innovation was crucial to defeating Russia's efforts to seize more territory. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian defense industry is moving toward production on a scale that would have seemed impossible a few years ago. Rapidly expanding drone production is less a fixed system than an evolving one: initially primarily defensive, but steadily expanding across air, sea, and now ground combat zones.
What began as improvisation is increasingly hardening into a durable, technological defense system, as the country seeks to become an indigestible steel porcupine for its rapacious neighbor. Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s defense-industrial base has grown at an unprecedented pace, with annual production capacity increasing five times to $50 billion.
Chinese Mavic drones, for example, became emblematic of the war not because they were built for combat, but because Ukrainians adapted them to drop grenades when no better option existed. That was followed by Ukraine’s repeated examples of how quickly assembled, continuously adapted drones fielded at scale can have a major impact on the battlefield. For defenders, it’s been a race to build effective, low-cost systems that can be mass-produced quickly. Ukraine was soon assembling its own drones and eventually building drone components as well.
This is underlined by the 2025 and 2026 American-Israeli wars with Iran, which offer reminders that expensive and procurement-heavy systems do not guarantee a quick victory; see, for example, the reported destruction of 16 Reaper drones over Iran, each costing up to $30 million. Meanwhile, an opponent equipped with cheap drones can still impose disproportionate costs and disrupt forces in ways that traditional procurement models struggle to match. Russia was also slow to absorb some of the lessons. But bogged down in trench warfare in eastern Ukraine's Donbas, it was eventually forced to adapt, increasing its own drone capability with the help of partners such as China and Iran.
Ukrainian drones are not a revolution in physics or materials; rather, they are a revolution in application, scaling, and adaptability. They systematically changed the balance on the battlefield. Now Ukraine’s drone wall is expanding. Mid-range strike drones have wreaked havoc on Russian air defenses, aided by the increasing use of Starlink connectivity over occupied territories.
Ukraine’s drone production has resulted in the use of drones that can strike several thousand kilometers into Russia against major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as oil production, export facilities, and factories supporting the arms industry. Russia is poised to cut oil output by a fifth following Ukrainian drone strikes on port facilities; tankers are meanwhile backed up in the Baltic Sea as they cannot fill up at damaged docks.
The most strategically significant development of this war is Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure across vast distances. Ukraine can now reach from the Arctic submarine bases to southern energy infrastructure. Russia cannot defend everything.
Ukraine is also pouring millions of dollars into missile development to match the success of its drones. Ukraine’s defense minister said the government is acting like a venture capital investor by giving large grants to local companies. Ukraine has now developed and built drones that can hit targets from 500 kilometers to several thousand kilometers inside Russia.
At sea, Ukrainian naval drones have effectively forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to retreat to Novorossiysk, more than a thousand kilometers from the Crimean Peninsula. Ukraine is using the drones to attack shadow-fleet oil tankers, including those operating near the Turkish Straits. Ukraine is adapting drone vessels to carry interceptor drones, extending its defensive reach across the Black Sea.
Units using ground combat drones initially reduced frontline infantry requirements by up to 30 percent and may reach 80 percent in the future. Recently, one machine-gun-equipped ground robot reportedly held a position for 45 days. In another situation, several machine-gun-armed drone vehicles were dropped into a Russian rear area by a cargo-carrying drone aircraft. The combat drones proceeded to open fire on Russian troops in the area. When the drones' ammunition was gone, they moved towards buildings used by the Russian forces and detonated. What was especially frightening to the Russians was that all this carnage was created by Ukrainian drones. The Russians suffered hundreds of casualties, versus none for the Ukrainians. Now Ukrainian engineers are working on ways to integrate land drones into the fortification network. While Russia has continued to pound Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, Ukraine has developed low-cost interceptor systems that are attracting worldwide interest, including in the Middle East.
With young, technology-focused defense officials, many key elements are beginning to align. Across the battlefield, drones and other emerging systems are helping fill critical gaps, and Ukraine will continue using that unequal advantage to deny Russia the chance to achieve its goals.