November 3, 2024: For over two decades it was believed that Hassan Nasrallah was so critical to the success of Hezbollah, that if he was killed, the whole organization would fall apart. Although on paper the movement has clear lines of authority, and a defined order-of-succession, if you take a close look at Nasrallah's henchmen, you realize that most of them are pretty much the ordinary run of uninspiring Arab thugs. As none of them comes near Nasrallah in either brains or charisma, they would most likely begin squabbling among themselves if Nasrallah got killed. Iran sent lots of advisers and technical experts to Lebanon, but none of these could expect to lead Hezbollah, largely because all Lebanese are touchy about foreign influence. Although decades of Syrian occupation favored Hezbollah, and thus Shias in general, it was still foreign occupation. And it's no secret that Syria considers large parts of eastern Lebanon as territory that should be part of Syria. Iran doesn't like depending so much on one person, but they don't have much choice. Nasrallah, like most Arab strongmen, saw the elimination of any likely successors as an excellent method for avoiding getting deposed.

In 2024 the importance of Nasrallah and Hezbollah ceased to be a problem. He was killed along with other key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Israel used exploding pagers and portable radios, plus airstrikes, to accomplish this. Israel also killed several senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders including the elusive Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas supreme leader and one of its founders. Sinwar was moving about in Gaza when he and some aides were confronted by some Israeli soldiers. There was a brief gunbattle and the Israelis discovered that one of the dead men was the elusive Yahya Sinwar. Within a day, DNA tests confirmed that Sinwar was dead. His death was a catastrophe for Hamas which had recently suffered the loss of several leaders. Sinwar had spent two years planning and organizing the October 2023 Hamas offensive in Gaza that left over a thousand Israeli dead. This was the largest number of Israelis ever killed in one day, let alone one action. With Sinwar gone, several lesser Hamas leaders are feuding with each other to determine who will replace their departed leader. You can’t replace someone like Sinwar and his aides who are finding that out as their succession disputes leave Hamas paralyzed and starting to fall apart.

Now virtually leaderless, Palestinians are unsure of what the future will bring. Most Palestinians live in or immediately adjacent to Israel. Two million of Israel’s 9.8 million population are Palestinians. The Gaza Strip contains 365 square kilometers of territory and 2.1 million Palestinians. The West Bank contains 5,655 square kilometers and 4.1 million Palestinians. Gaza has had many rulers over the last century. A century ago Gaza was administered by British officials and occupied by British troops. After 1945 Gaza was ruled by Egyptian officials. In 1956 a war between several Arab states and Israel was won by the Israelis, who also captured Gaza but then withdrew. The 1967 Arab Israeli war saw Gaza once more captured by the Israelis and administered by them until 2005 when, after an 11 year process, Israeli forces withdrew and a local Palestinian government, initially Al Fatah, which also ruled the West Bank, took over Gaza.

In 2006 Hamas, a radical Palestinian group that had taken refuge in Egypt, won Palestinian elections for a united Palestinian government. The West Bank Palestinian leaders refused to accept Hamas rule and there was fighting between Fatah and Hamas factions. Israel did not want this violence to spread into Israel and blockaded Gaza, only letting people in or out who were unarmed and had a good reason, like medical care or visiting relatives the Israeli knew about. Hamas continued to recruit Palestinian men to join their force. Hamas armed these new recruits with weapons from Iran, via Egyptian smugglers who could get the guns into Gaza, for a price. Hamas completely took over in Gaza in 2007 while Fatah remained in control of the West Bank.

By 2023 Hamas forces in Gaza had grown to about 30,000 men, though there were also other rival armed Palestinian and non-Palestinian terrorist groups, and there had been several mini wars between Hamas and Israel since 2007. In October 2023, 3,000 of the armed Hamas fighters, and an equal number of Gaza civilians and non-Hamas terrorists, attacked Israel. About half of the 3,000 attacking Hamas fighters were killed during this offensive. The IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) lost 376 troops while 767 civilians died as well. As of October, 97 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, or are dead. Israel has to take Hamas’s word for it that any of these hostages are still alive.

Surviving Hamas gunmen stayed in Gaza because they failed to advance. In Gaza Hamas waged a guerilla war against the IDF. Hamas also took 251 Israeli civilians and soldiers captive and is trying to bargain with Israel to get thousands of imprisoned Palestinians freed in return for their Israeli captives. So far Israel is not willing to release thousands of convicted Hamas and other Palestinian killers to get 251 soldiers and civilians back. Instead IDF forces have been searching for the hostages and fighting Hamas gunmen who are guarding them.

Hamas has been much less of a problem in the West Bank where Fatah security forces, with some assistance from the IDF, have kept most Hamas fighters out. Hamas leaders, especially Ismail Haniyeh, have lived in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar for several years and control $11 billion dollars donated to Hamas by various western and charitable groups and Arab governments as well several hundred million dollars a year from Iran. In theory this money should be used to make life easier, or at least bearable, for Palestinians living in Gaza. That does not happen because Hamas steals the money as well as foreign aid from Western countries. Israel sends food aid, accompanied by a military escort that fights armed Hamas members seeking to steal the aid. As of late-2024, this remains the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.