April 12, 2026: the U.S. Navy is increasing its production of the Hammerhead anti-submarine mine system. This mine is designed to detect, classify, and engage submarines and can be deployed by unmanned underwater drones to deal with increasingly capable Russian and Chinese submarines. The Hammerhead system uses underwater sensors to monitor large areas for submarine activity. Each Hammerhead module consists of a tube with a mooring device at the bottom and a battery pack, above that is a signal processing and decision system followed by the torpedo with a sensor and communication system at the top of the module.

Once a target is detected and confirmed as a hostile submarine, the mine releases the torpedo capable of finding, following and sinking the submarine, or surface ship.

Hammerheads can be placed on shallow sea bottoms and left to monitor the surrounding area for threats. Ideal locations for Hammerheads are sea lanes enemy forces might use, or to guard friendly naval bases. The navy plans to use underwater drones to recharge batteries and update software. Larger underwater drones can be used to retrieve Hammerheads and bring them to a nearby naval base or ship for repairs, upgrades or replacement if a Hammerhead is too far gone for further use.

At the same time American naval strategists are seeking a solution to the problems presented by the potential widespread use of drones by and against naval forces. This is not a theoretical problem but a reality. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian drones forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the drones means that Ukraine’s grain corridor has been kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere. Beyond symbolic significance, the corridor holds critical economic importance for Ukraine and contributed over 5 percent of GDP growth in 2024 because of the grain shipments.

The aggressive and successful use of Ukrainian drones against the Russian Black Sea fleet was unprecedented in the history of naval warfare. Not only were these drones tactically successful but financially as well. For example, new frigates cost about $1.5 billion each. That much money can also pay for 5,000 drones. Destroyers cost twice as much as frigates. The frigates and destroyers are high seas ships that can travel all over the world. The drones operate in coastal waters although some of the larger drones can operate up to a thousand kilometers from where they were launched. These drones carry video cameras and satellite-based communications systems to collect information and, in peacetime, do so without fear of attack. Severe storms are another matter, but any storm damage will be broadcast as it is happening, at least until the video cameras or communications equipment is disabled.

Commercial cargo ships can carry hundreds of armed flying, surface water and underwater drones equipped with satellite communications so operators anywhere in the world can control them. These drones can be covertly launched at sea to carry out attacks on targets in the, area or move to a nearby harbor and remain tied to a dock until needed. The only maintenance is keeping the drone batteries charged. These drones are a radical new weapon for naval warfare and the war at sea will never be the same because of the success of Ukrainian drones in their victorious campaign against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and launched from secretly parked cargo containers to attack any target.

Initially the Ukrainian water-going drones were Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA. At the end of 2023 Cossack Mother, top speed of 100 kilometers an hour, entered service. Manufacture of these drones is done in underground facilities to avoid Russian missile and guided bomb attacks.

Sea Baby carrying 850 kg of explosives was used in the mid-2023 Kerch Bridge attack. MAGURA carries 320 kg of explosives while Mamai carries 450 kg. These drones are no longer used just for delivering explosives against a target, they can also be used for reconnaissance when equipped with video cameras that broadcast what they see back to the drone operator. Some drones have been armed with small rocket launchers or surface-to-air missiles. Malyuk has a range of over 700 kilometers, which means they are suitable for operations on the high seas. Endurance is about 60 hours, and top speed is over 70 kilometers an hour. MAGURA has similar characteristics. Mamai was used in the long range attack at the distant naval base at Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea eastern, which is a thousand kilometers from Crimea.

Ukraine has been developing subsurface drones since 2022 and in early 2023 the first one, the Toloka2 TK-150 entered service. This drone was 2.5 meters long and equipped with a sensor mast that remained above the surface for navigation and to identify targets. Toloka2 can also carry a small explosive warhead. More recently, Ukraine developed the larger Marichka drone that is 6 meters long and one meter in diameter.

Ukrainian naval drones and land based missiles destroyed over a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forced the survivors to take shelter at Russian ports over a thousand kilometers from Crimea. While Russia still occupies Crimea, the area is under siege by Ukrainian naval drones and land based missiles. Soon Russia will no longer be able to supply Crimea because of this. The Kerch Strait bridge from Russia to Crimea is in bad shape and can only allow limited truck traffic. By the end of 2024 Russia had withdrawn all of its ships from Crimea and shut down its ship repair facilities. Ukraine has the means to demolish what is left of the bridge whenever they want to. This will happen when Ukraine decides to blockade Crimea and force the Russians to abandon the peninsula because they cannot supply it.