February 23, 2026: Because of the recent American raid on Venezuela, Russia lost another ally. It was not a critical loss, because a few years ago Russia offered to end its support for Venezuela if the United States ended its support for Ukraine. The Americans declined. With Maduro gone Russia has lost its base for further expansion of their influence in South America. Over the last fifteen years Russia poured over $40 billion into Venezuela as they sought to strengthen Venezuela militarily and politically. Russia was not able to fix the declining Venezuelan oil industry. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine resulted in economic sanctions on Russia that shut down most of their Venezuelan aid efforts. Russians lost their supply of fresh avocados and tropical resorts for vacations during the Russian Winter.

Venezuela had purchased billions of dollars’ worth of Russian weapons. Why all the weapons? In Venezuela leader Hugo Chavez took power in 1999, and his 2013 successor Nicholas Maduro achieved a measure of popularity with the voters by convincing them that the United States was about to invade. Venezuelan leaders took comfort in new weapons, especially those being used to arm a new personal militia. Weapons may not be needed to stop Yankee invaders, but they will also work against disloyal Venezuelans.

This Venezuelan credit binge was a new development. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has sold weapons on a cash basis. No more generous terms as in the Cold War past. But that is changing, and Russia eventually offered Venezuela billions of dollars in credit, for the purchase of more weapons. The Venezuelan spending spree brought in dozens of Su-30 jet fighters, hundreds of armored vehicles including T-90 tanks and scores of artillery systems, mainly multiple rocket launchers. There are also small arms including a factory for making assault rifles, radios and other equipment. There are support aircraft, including transports and helicopter gunships. Negotiations were under way to purchase new warships, including submarines.

With Venezuelan unemployment rising, there's no shortage of people trying to join the military. Those willing to profess undying loyalty to Chavez and later Maduro had an edge, and the senior ranks had already been purged of those who did not agree with the radical reforms Maduro wanted to impose on the military. These reforms were heavy on politics and theory, and short on training and experience. So all those new weapons faced a problematic future, as they are in the hands of inept, but politically motivated, users.

Among those many weapons none were more questionable than S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. S-300 battalions consist of a radar unit, and 4-8 launchers four S-300 missiles are mounted on each launcher, which is carried by semi-trailer truck. The really high end systems were needed to have a chance against the United States, which is what Venezuela said it needs to defend itself from.

Venezuela also bought 92 Russian tanks. None of Venezuela's borders are tank country, and only one of Venezuela's neighbors has large tank forces, Brazil, which has over 500 heavy tanks. So, these tanks would mainly be used to keep Venezuelans in line. For that, T-72s would do.

Venezuela had already purchased Su-27 jet fighters, and hundreds of thousands of assault rifles for a militia loyal to Presidents Chavez and Maduro. While Venezuela is a major oil producer, Chavez and Maduro were spending money faster than they could pump oil. An increasing number of Venezuelans were unhappy with the billions in oil revenue given to foreigners or spent on weapons and cronies. Thus, the importance of getting a loan which may never be repaid, especially if Maduro gets overthrown. Chavez and Maduro also sought advice from the Russians on how to turn a democracy into a police state. Chavez and Maduro needed this kind of knowledge, because his growing clamp down on opposition media, and any opposition in general, is generating increasingly violent resistance.